Hello everyone, welcome back to the U.S. stock market analysis channel. I’m Lorder. It’s 8:45 PM Eastern Time, Tuesday, June 24, 2026. Risk-off sentiment picked up today, with all four major indexes closing lower. The Nasdaq 100 fell more than 3%. The Dow didn’t drop much, thanks to gains in stocks like IBM, MRK, and JNJ. In particular, IBM, which we discussed yesterday, got a boost today after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock. The main driver of tech weakness today came from semiconductor and memory stocks. Earlier, there was a rumor out of South Korea about SK Hynix. Both SK Hynix and Samsung faced heavy selling pressure in the Korean market, triggering a circuit breaker on the KOSPI, and that panic spread globally.

Let me give you my take on today’s move first. A lot of people are worried – those who bought stocks are afraid of getting crushed, and those who haven’t bought are wondering if now is the time. My conclusion: the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq held at very critical levels today and did not break down. In particular, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is still a fair distance from a breakdown. Today’s selloff looked ugly in some names, but it didn’t do material damage to the uptrend – unless we get another move of this magnitude, say the Nasdaq down another 3% and the SOX down another 8%, then we’d have a real pullback trend. So if you’re worried about being trapped, don’t panic for now. The leveraged long army isn’t going to give up that easily. Today’s damage wasn’t enough, and there weren’t that many liquidations – some in Korea, but not many. If you’re sitting on a pile of cash waiting to buy the dip, wait a bit longer. Later I’ll talk about three waves of selling pressure that could converge. If the speculative crowd can’t hold the line and joins the selling, there could be an even bigger bargain ahead. For those looking to go long on the dip, be a little more patient. This is a critical tug-of-war moment.

Today’s decline was mainly driven by profit-taking in tech stocks that had rallied sharply earlier, not a broad market selloff. Within the S&P 500, more stocks rose than fell. Defensive sectors like consumer staples and utilities were strong, reflecting risk-off sentiment. The semiconductor and memory sectors were hit by the rumor that SK Hynix is slowing its HBM capacity ramp, which was one of the triggers for the global semiconductor selloff. Samsung and SK Hynix together dominate the Korean stock market, and they were both affected by the same rumor. The Korean market is heavily leveraged, and regulators may tighten oversight. Volatility there can spill over into global semiconductors.

S&P 500 current price: 7335 after hours. Support levels: 7287, 7312, 7000–7022, 6766, 6695, 653–672. Key support has not been broken, so the bias is neutral to bullish. The 653–672 zone is a potential high-value entry area. If 7287 or 7312 break, caution is warranted.

Nasdaq 100 key support: 694–721. It would need to fall about another 3% to break that zone and form a trend reversal. Below that, watch 645–665, 617–637, and 588–613 – those levels would require a deterioration in fundamentals.

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index support: 554. It would need to fall about another 8% to break that level and form a downtrend. It still looks relatively strong.

Micron Technology options positioning ahead of earnings shows massive expected volatility over the next month, plus or minus 20%. Open interest on puts is concentrated at 730 and 620, indicating strong hedging demand. The likely post-earnings range is 850 to 1200. Support at 546, resistance at 778–813, 890–970, and 1020–1085.

Be alert to the risk of three waves of selling pressure converging. First, highly leveraged capital, such as in the Korean market, could trigger forced liquidations on further declines, leading to a cascade. Second, at the end of June, pension funds will mechanically rebalance, selling stocks to buy bonds, with the scale at a historical high. Third, CTA trend-following strategies could trigger large-scale programmatic selling if the S&P 500 breaks key levels like 7312 or 7022.

On the fundamental side, the semiconductor and memory sectors are reacting to the SK Hynix rumor about slowing HBM capacity, raising concerns that AI demand growth may be peaking. June PMI data shows cost-side inflation remains elevated, so inflationary pressure can’t be ignored. Tech sectors like semiconductors have rallied too far too fast, with steep slopes, overvaluation, and insufficient rotation of positions, making further gains unsustainable.

A statistical signal on gap-down openings: when the QQQ is within 2% of its 52-week high and the VIX is below 20, a gap-down of more than 2% has occurred. This has happened five times in history, including today. In the prior four instances, the QQQ fell sharply over the following month. But the sample size is small, so take this with caution.

Alright, that’s all for today’s program. Let’s wait for Micron’s earnings tomorrow and see how the market reacts. That’s it for now. See you tomorrow at the same time.