Hello everyone, welcome back to the U.S. stock analysis channel. I’m lorder. It’s Thursday evening, June 25, 2020, Eastern Time. Yesterday’s strong earnings report from Micron boosted optimism in the memory chip sector, and Micron shares surged. At the same time, however, there’s growing discussion about concerns over hyperscale data center spending. Micron rallied early today, pulled back, then recovered into the close, ending with solid gains but still facing resistance near its prior highs.

We’re currently in the late-June to early-July portfolio rebalancing period, so some market volatility is normal. Over the long term, AI monetization is lagging but still progressing. If you’re betting on AI succeeding, you can’t avoid the core spenders: Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta. If AI ultimately proves to be a false premise, the economic consequences would be severe.

The four major indexes opened higher and then faded today. The Nasdaq 100 opened up about 2%, dipped as low as negative 0.6% intraday, and closed up 0.75%. The S&P 500 had more advancing stocks, with 305 rising versus just 198 declining. The S&P equal-weight index performed well, gaining 0.6%.

Micron’s earnings and guidance beat expectations across the board, with a large number of guaranteed supply agreements in place. Technically, it’s at elevated levels with no clear overhead resistance. Support levels are at 1000 to 1020 and 1085.

Apple is currently at 275, having pulled back to a strong support zone. Support is at 226 to 228 and 188 to 235. Valuation is back to a reasonable level within the past year. For bulls, look for a bottoming pattern near support; the closer to the lower end of the valuation range, the better. A small head formation formed before the decline.

Google hit an intraday low of 335, which is relatively better. The price has fallen back below its 100-day moving average and the median valuation, leaving limited room for further downside. Support is at 311 to 325 and 340, with resistance at 375. The 311 to 325 range is a zone for building positions.

Amazon is at 227, near the lower end of its forward valuation range, an area where buyers may step in as the stock stabilizes. Support is at 219.

Microsoft is at 352, with the 360 level broken, now in a consolidation phase. A sharp near-term rally is unlikely, but the area below remains a zone for positioning. The stock gapped down today.

Meta has entered a dense, strong support zone. Support levels are at 454, 482, and 540.

Nvidia is volatile, but the stock is still considered not expensive. The downside is its massive market cap, which requires significant capital to move.

We’re in the late-June to early-July period, and the market could see sharp swings due to institutional rebalancing, pension fund month-end selling, CTA strategy trigger points, and forced liquidation of high leverage. AI monetization is lagging, and if it ultimately proves false, it would severely drag on U.S. GDP, with 74% of current growth coming from AI investment. A broad AI-related credit debt crisis could follow, potentially exceeding the severity of 2022 or even the 2000 dot-com bubble.

Big tech companies face enormous pressure from data center capital expenditures, rising costs eating into profits, and a prisoner’s dilemma that makes it hard for any one company to cut spending first. Market capital currently favors high-volatility, fast-moving names, while stocks with massive market caps requiring huge capital inflows may lack sustained buying momentum. OpenAI may delay its IPO until next year, which is seen as a signal that the lead underwriting banks are cautious about current market timing.

The three selling waves I mentioned earlier haven’t materialized yet. One is the month-end pension fund stock selling. Another is the CTA trigger level at 7312, which hasn’t been hit. The third is the extremely high leverage, which only becomes exposed during sharp, consecutive gap-down moves. Alright, that’s it for today’s show. Same time tomorrow, see you then.