Hello everyone, welcome back to the U.S. stock market analysis channel. I'm lorder. It's Friday evening, June 26, 2026, Eastern Time. The market had an interesting week. The software sector suddenly showed some life, but the risk of a breakdown in the broader market is still hanging out there. Let's keep it brief today and not ramble.

First, my stance: wait and see. The blogger believes the current market is in a chaotic period of mechanical portfolio rebalancing by institutions at month-end and quarter-end. Today's broad-based rally on higher volume doesn't carry much directional significance. The overall market risk—such as the breakdown risk for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100—has not been resolved. A true rotation or directional change won't become clearer until the first week of July, after capital is reallocated.

Let's start with the broader market. The S&P 500 ETF SPY closed at 728, with support at 727. If it closes below 727, it faces breakdown risk. After a breakdown, the next targets would be based on forward-looking price ranges derived from Q1 earnings. The Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ closed at 706, with several support levels below, such as 617, 637, 645, and 665. If it breaks below 693.72, the trend turns bearish.

For the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index SOXX, support is in the 554 to 582 range. A break below 554 would confirm a top formation. However, the semiconductor sector has earnings support and shouldn't be overly shorted, with multiple potential stabilization points below. The semiconductor ETF SMH has support in the 591 to 613 range, with a breakdown level at 557. Its components differ from SOXX.

Today, the S&P 500 showed decent breadth, with 324 stocks rising and 178 falling. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index rose 0.55% this week, while the S&P 500 itself fell 1.95%. This suggests improving market breadth, with the rally potentially broadening from a few semiconductor stocks to more names—a potential sign of mean reversion.

The software ETF IGV had a low of 84.2 yesterday and is currently near the lower end of its trading range. The closer it gets to this area, the greater the likelihood of stabilization. However, today's rally came at a specific time and should be viewed neutrally; we need to observe for a few more days.

On individual stocks, let's start with Microsoft MSFT. It has already broken down and is trading in a lower range. A bounce back to the 392 to 435 area would be considered decent, but it needs time or clearer capex signals.

For Alphabet GOOGL, if it continues to decline, the area below represents a long-term accumulation zone. Based on 2027 forward valuations, the 279 level is an important reference.

Amazon AMZN is currently trading within identified long-term support zones, between 219 and 226 and between 227 and 240. Position sizing can be adjusted based on your own portfolio.

For META, my view is unchanged. The closer it gets to the 500 cost basis area, the more it becomes a long-term accumulation opportunity with potential for excess returns.

Nvidia NVDA is down but hasn't broken a key level. Below 175, based on growth rate estimates, it's approaching undervalued territory. Unless there's a sector-wide negative catalyst—like a sharp drop in demand or tech giants cutting capex—the odds of it holding are still there.

AMD is following hot semiconductor stocks in a high-level range. If it doesn't break down, fine; but if it does, the pullback could be significant.

Tesla TSLA touched 368 today, which is the lower end of its trading range. A more ideal level would be 358 to 348. If it falls into that zone, buying interest might be stronger.

SpaceX continues to trade in a tight range on declining volume, with heavy overhead supply but limited selling pressure below. It's being pressured by news of potential further debt or equity financing.

Micron MU has support at 1020 and 1085. SanDisk SNDK has support at 172.7 and 180.9. Intel INTC has support in the 115 to 122 and 105 to 113 ranges.

Palantir PLTR had a low near 118 today, with its value zone between 80 and 97. It has already been cut in half from its highs and is entering a more reasonable valuation range. If it drops to 80 to 97, it could be an opportunity for long-term believers.

Intuit INTU has support at 244 and 257, resistance in the 268 to 300 range, and strong resistance above at 346 to 420. It's bouncing along with the software sector, but we need to see if the software sector as a whole stabilizes.

Oracle ORCL is weak because of its deep ties to OpenAI. OpenAI's delayed IPO has hurt market confidence.

Netflix NFLX has strong support below 77. It has already entered that strong support zone, so the price isn't high, but it needs a more standard stabilization pattern. Today's volume signal is noisy due to rebalancing.

SRG's price action shows clear signs of algorithmic trading, with limited active buying. This doesn't necessarily indicate a directional move has been established.

On the risk side, there are a few things to keep in mind.

First, systemic risk. The S&P 500 ETF SPY and Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ are very close to key breakdown levels. Before the end of next Tuesday, there's still a risk of a breakdown triggered by mechanical selling from institutions like pension funds.

Second, timing risk. We're at the end of June and the quarter. Institutional rebalancing could cause market chaos and abnormal volatility. The true trend won't be confirmed until the first week of July, after capital is reallocated.

Third, sector rotation uncertainty. The semiconductor sector hasn't confirmed a breakdown, but it's looking weak. Whether capital flows back into semiconductors after month-end rebalancing is uncertain.

Fourth, high leverage risk. There are still a large number of high-leverage positions that haven't been closed out, increasing volatility risk.

Fifth, stock-specific risks. Oracle faces credit risk due to its deep ties with OpenAI. SpaceX is under pressure from expectations of continued debt or equity financing. Software stocks are oversold, but whether they can truly form a bottom remains to be seen.

Alright, that's all for today. The market may have some more unusual volatility in store for us next week. Even though today's market looked good, don't let your guard down too much on the broader indices—they're just too close to those breakdown levels. I hope everyone has a relaxing weekend. We'll pick it up again next week. Have a great weekend.