Hello everyone, welcome back to the U.S. stock analysis channel. I'm lorder. Today's market action is a bit subdued, but beneath the surface, the signals from several key sectors are anything but quiet. Let's jump right in.

The overall market sentiment is currently cautious, with several key sectors showing risks of slowing growth or technical breakdowns. Geopolitical factors, the sustainability of AI investment, and weak consumer data all warrant vigilance. Special attention is needed for key ETFs like XLK, XLB, and XLY, which are approaching important support levels. If they break down, it could trigger a significant pullback in the broader market.

Among the four major indices today, only the Nasdaq managed a slight gain. On the S&P 500, only 112 stocks advanced, while 391 declined, indicating a clear broad-based selloff. By sector, only 2 of the 11 S&P sectors rose, while 9 fell.

Within the tech sector, the large caps that performed well today were Broadcom and Nvidia. Broadcom signed an agreement with Apple worth over $300 billion to develop and supply chips for Apple. Spurred by this news, it rose 4.83% on higher volume, testing a key level. Nvidia also rose 3.65% on higher volume. On the news front, China plans to allow some of its largest AI companies, including Alibaba, ByteDance, and DeepSeek, to purchase a small number of Nvidia H200 chips. However, the volume is small, and the symbolic significance may outweigh the practical impact. Currently, none of Nvidia's forward guidance includes sales to China. So, if those sales materialize, it's a bonus; if not, current performance is still based on the current fiscal year's median estimate of $204. The stock remains attractive long-term, but is constrained by its large market cap and narrowing growth prospects.

First, let's look at the semiconductor sector. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index SOXX has broken below the key support level of 582, which now acts as resistance. To stabilize, it needs to bounce back above 582. For a true reversal to the upside, it must break through 621.

Next, consumer leader Costco COST. June sales hit a record, but same-store sales growth slowed to 8.8%, the lowest level since February. The stock remains in overvalued territory. If it breaks below the key support level of 867, it could trigger a mean reversion.

The Technology Sector ETF XLK is currently near its key support level of 172. If it breaks below, it could open up a downside move of roughly 15% to the medium support level.

The Materials Sector ETF XLB is currently near its key support range of 48.6 to 49.7. If it breaks below, it could fall roughly 10% to 45.4.

The Consumer Discretionary Sector ETF XLY is currently near its key support range of 110 to 113. If it breaks below, it could fall roughly 10% to around 100.

On the geopolitical front, tensions in the Middle East are high, and the U.S.-Iran conflict is increasing market volatility. Additionally, with the U.S. election approaching, uncertainty is rising.

Regarding the sustainability of AI investment, the current rally in the semiconductor and AI sectors relies on expectations of massive capital expenditures from a handful of tech giants. A UBS report shows that conservative family office capital is cautious about increasing AI investment over the next 12 months, with only 7% planning to do so. This suggests that "smart money" may not be chasing highs at these levels. The monetization of AI is not expected to be validated until the second half of 2026. If results fall short, it could lead to a slowdown in capital expenditure growth.

On consumer weakness, Costco, as a consumer bellwether, saw its same-store sales growth slow, which may signal weakening U.S. consumer momentum. If both consumer spending and AI investment slow simultaneously, it could put pressure on the economy.

Regarding the risk of key technical level breakdowns, key sector ETFs like XLK, XLB, and XLY, representing technology, materials, and consumer discretionary, are all approaching important support levels. If they break down collectively, it could trigger a significant pullback in broad market indices like the S&P 500.

On market sentiment and fund flows, South Korea's stock market has seen heavy foreign selling, exceeding $100 billion year-to-date, with domestic investors leveraging to buy the dip. This has increased market volatility and reflects a global risk-off sentiment toward some overheated markets.

Alright, that's all for today's program. The market may be quiet, but the key levels and risk points are worth noting. I'll see you all tomorrow at the same time.