Welcome back to the U.S. stock market analysis channel. I’m lorder. In today’s episode, we’ll cover a few names that have been keeping investors on edge—IBM’s historic sell-off, an unexpected lift in the semiconductor space, the software ETF IGV holding its ground, ISRG taking a hit from negative sector news, ASML’s earnings-related volatility, and a CPI print that came in below expectations. What exactly is the market up to? Let’s break it down one by one.

Let me start with my stance: I’m cautiously watching the broader market and certain individual stocks, but I maintain a swing-bullish view on select names like IGV. Overall, the market is showing declining volume, weak breadth, and a choppy pattern. While the CPI data is favorable, the Fed remains cautious. On the stock level, IBM’s plunge on an earnings warning dragged the software sector, but IGV showed resilience. ISRG fell on sector headwinds and needs a better entry point. ASML’s valuation wasn’t cheap before earnings, so chasing it higher requires caution.

Today, all four major indices moved higher, but it wasn’t convincing. The Nasdaq led the gains, yet volume has been quite low. One data point: total market volume is down roughly 20% compared to the 20-day average. Market breadth is also weak—within the S&P 500, 203 stocks rose while 297 fell, meaning decliners outnumbered advancers, pointing to a weaker internal structure.

By sector, five sectors were up today and six were down. Healthcare fell about two points, and consumer staples dropped 1.38%. Tech, communications, and financials posted decent gains. The semiconductor sector rose over 2% on the day, but I view this rally as a bounce after a breakdown—until it clears the $621 resistance level, I’ll treat it as a rebound, and the market may continue to oscillate.

IBM: After the plunge, it’s around $217, down from roughly $300 before the drop. The technical picture has weakened, with a downside target near $185 and key support at $213. If it closes below $213, consider cutting losses. On a bounce to the $235 to $247 range, consider reducing positions. This is an earnings “black swan,” and the breakdown risk is significant.

IGV (Software ETF): Despite opening lower on the IBM news, buying interest on dips was evident, and it’s now about 3% above its opening price. Support sits at $90.1, with a target of $101 and above. I maintain a swing-bullish view, provided it doesn’t break below $90.1 support. The fact that it held up despite IBM’s plunge suggests the market sees resilience in the software sector.

ISRG: Hit by negative sector news, it fell to around $379, with attention on levels below $360. The expected buy zone is between $300 and $360, with resistance at $405. Given the potential for valuation downgrades, wait for a strong reversal pattern in this range before considering a buy—don’t blindly catch the falling knife. A decline in surgical volumes could lead to a double hit on earnings expectations and valuation, which carries notable risk.

ASML: Up after hours, but the stock wasn’t cheap before earnings, with an upper bound near $1,641. An aggressive buy zone is below $1,550, with resistance near $2,000, close to next fiscal year’s top. Chasing the after-hours rally carries higher risk. For holders, it’s better to stay put and observe; for those looking to open new positions, wait for a better entry, such as below $1,550.

On the macro side, Fed Chair Powell noted that a single month of improved CPI data doesn’t mean the job is done, maintaining a hawkish and cautious stance, leaving future policy paths uncertain. Low volume could lead to increased volatility or a lack of sustained moves.

On individual stock risks: IBM faces an earnings “black swan” with a technical breakdown, posing further downside risk. ISRG is exposed to the risk of dual downgrades in earnings expectations and valuation. ASML’s stock was already at elevated levels before earnings, and post-earnings volatility could be high, making chasing the stock risky. The semiconductor sector may continue to oscillate until a clear breakout, and using leverage in this environment can lead to wear-and-tear losses.

A final reminder: Investors need to do their own research on individual stocks. Don’t blindly follow trades in companies you don’t understand.

Alright, that’s all for today. Market volume is shrinking, and the overall picture isn’t great. Some long-term opportunities are waiting to emerge, and a few are already getting close. When it’s time to prepare, get ready. When it’s not, take a good rest. See you next time.