Hello everyone, welcome back to the U.S. stock analysis channel. I'm lorder. Today, let's talk about the back-and-forth in the semiconductor sector and a few stocks that took a big hit after earnings. First, a general impression: semiconductors have been taking one step forward and two or three steps back recently. For those used to buying the dip, this rhythm is psychologically damaging, especially for memory stocks. Dip buyers are getting more scared, while mechanical selling is on the rise.

For now, I'm bearish or neutral on the semiconductor sector, especially memory stocks, in the short term. But I'm bullish on the broader market and some tech names, like TSMC and Microsoft, over the medium to long term. This semiconductor sell-off is mainly a "longs liquidating longs" correction driven by high-leverage speculative money stampeding out—not the end of the industry cycle. There's no systemic risk in the broader market; it's just capital rotating between sectors. As for stocks like Netflix and ISRG that plunged after earnings, I think they've entered value territory. I'm ready to build or add positions.

The current decline in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is a correction from deleveraging and speculative excess, not a cycle reversal. I'm not calling for a crash; this is a reasonable pullback. As long as you're not holding leveraged positions, there's no need to panic. The VIX is currently at 16, a low level, indicating no systemic fear in the market.

On memory stocks: Micron's technical support is weak. The decline is driven by leveraged liquidation, and a bottom will only come once the deleveraging process ends. Fundamentals support the stock, but it faces adjustment risk. SNDK is similar—it lacks effective technical support below, and its direction depends on the pace of deleveraging. Both stocks were rapidly pushed up by leveraged money without sufficient price discovery along the way, leaving thin support underneath.

ASML is currently at $1,700. Earnings were strong, but growth slightly missed expectations. This price already exceeds the 2027 median valuation of $1,659, leaving limited upside. I'd wait for a better entry, say below $1,550.

TSMC is at $409, a bit on the high side. If you have no position, wait for a pullback below the $393 to $410 range before considering an entry. If you already hold, stay put, with a target above $500. Going forward, watch the capex guidance from the four major tech companies.

Netflix dropped sharply after hours. Earnings slightly missed expectations, but the issue is industry growth bottlenecks, not a fundamental change in the company. I think it's entered value territory. I plan to start building a position, targeting a 4% allocation, once a bottoming pattern emerges in the $60 to $72 range.

ISRG fell below $360 after hours. Earnings growth was solid but slowing, putting pressure on its high valuation. The current price is already attractive. I plan to add to my position, targeting a total 7% allocation, once a good pattern forms in the $321 to $360 range. I remain bullish long-term.

Microsoft is my largest holding, with a long-term target above $600. In the short term, it needs to break above $435 on a technical basis to confirm the downtrend is over. Until then, pressure remains.

The risk of leveraged liquidation is still present. The Korean stock market and memory sector are seeing amplified volatility due to high-leverage ETF products, with risks of margin calls and cascading declines. Memory stock earnings are highly sensitive to spot price fluctuations, and future EPS could be revised down. The semiconductor cycle is heavily dependent on the capex plans of the four major tech companies, whose earnings guidance remains uncertain. ISRG faces challenges in the Chinese market and slowing growth, which could lower its valuation center. Stocks like Microsoft need to watch key resistance levels; failure to break through could extend the correction.

The market has been a bit rough lately, and you might be feeling tense or disappointed. Remember, the more relaxed you are, the better the outcome may be, and more positive things will flow your way. I wish you all success in long-term investing. Be careful with leverage. See you next time after the close.