Hello everyone, welcome back to the U.S. stock analysis channel. I'm lorder. We're recording a bit late today, so let's keep it tight and a little shorter. All four major indices closed higher, with the Nasdaq and semiconductors staging a strong rebound. All 30 components of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index were up. But the Big Four tech names, along with the software sector, once again moved in the opposite direction on the seesaw, all closing lower. The S&P is still showing a divergence between price and breadth—the index looks like it's rising, but more components are declining than advancing.

I'm staying on the sidelines for the semiconductor sector in the near term and bearish on Oracle. The market is showing a clear "seesaw" effect, with semiconductors diverging from large-cap tech and software. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is seeing a technical bounce after a drawdown of over 20%, but it's facing a key resistance level. The next direction will depend on big tech earnings, especially Google's capital expenditure guidance. Oracle's fundamental risk is extremely high, with its outlook deeply tied to OpenAI's ability to pay. Technically, it has broken down, and there's heavy overhead supply.

The S&P 500 index price is up, but the number of declining components exceeds the number of advancing ones, signaling internal market weakness. The frequency of this divergence this year has already surpassed levels seen in 2000, and if it continues, it could set a record. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index pulled back from its all-time high of 655 to a low of 498, a decline of over 20%. Historical data shows that after a 20% drop, the index's average return over the next 20 and 60 days is +8% and +11%, respectively.

The current rebound is facing strong resistance in the 550–584 range. This zone represents overhead supply from the prior breakdown, where bulls may be inclined to sell into strength to break even, putting pressure on prices. Tomorrow brings earnings from Google and Tesla, and the main event is Google's commentary on capital expenditures—will it raise guidance, hold steady, or signal a slowdown? Tomorrow is a big deal.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is currently rebounding into the strong resistance zone of 550–584, a point of contention between bulls and bears. Whether it breaks through depends on the capex guidance from tech giants like Google. Strategically, a bounce into this zone presents a technical shorting opportunity, with a stop loss above 584. Support sits at the recent low of 498.

Oracle has fallen to the low $120s, and I'm bearish. The fundamental risk is very high, with its balance sheet deteriorating due to the massive contract with OpenAI. Technically, it has broken down, lacks clear catalysts, and has heavy overhead supply, leaving little upward momentum. Old support is at 127.

For the S&P 500, the CTA system's next key trigger for selling is around 7440/7445. A break below that could trigger programmatic selling. Lower support sits at 71175 and 6445, which are quite far off. If Google's news tomorrow is negative for the market and sends it lower, that 7440 level could be triggered—it's only about 60 points away.

Single-Event Risk: Upcoming earnings from tech giants like Google and Tesla, particularly Google's capex guidance, will directly impact short-term capital flows in the semiconductor sector and the broader market.

Fundamental Revision Risk: Earnings growth expectations for the semiconductor industry are showing early signs of rolling over from their peak. If these continue to be revised downward, it would significantly drag on the S&P 500's overall earnings growth—semiconductors currently account for nearly half of the index's expected earnings growth.

Liquidity Risk: Semiconductor stocks now account for over 20% of global equity trading volume, an all-time high. If the sector's momentum fades, it could lead to a decline in overall market volume, affecting brokerages and market activity.

Stock-Specific Risk: Oracle faces extremely high credit risk, with its future heavily dependent on a single customer, OpenAI's ability to pay. OpenAI itself faces intense market competition, a delayed IPO, and valuation pressure. Whether its revenue can support contract payments of roughly $60 billion per year is highly uncertain.

Alright, that's all for today. Tomorrow we have earnings from Google and Tesla. I'll see you all at the same time tomorrow.