Hello everyone, welcome back to the U.S. stock analysis channel. I'm lorder. Trading was light today, with everyone waiting for after-hours earnings. Google's cloud revenue did surge, but the company is keeping its 2027 capital expenditure plans under wraps, creating a wide divergence in market expectations. Tesla's earnings growth is facing headwinds, and IBM, ServiceNow, and Texas Instruments each have their own stories. Let's dive right in.

I'm taking a wait-and-see approach to the overall market, with some structural views on individual stocks. The market was very quiet today, with the main event being after-hours earnings. While Google raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance, it remained tight-lipped about the growth rate for 2027, leading to a significant split in market expectations and a seesaw effect between semiconductors and software, as well as among the Big Four tech stocks. On a stock-specific level, Texas Instruments' earnings were a relief, IBM's fundamentals are under pressure, ServiceNow's results were solid but need to be watched for a breakout, Tesla is at the lower end of its trading range, and Google's own business is strong but its valuation is being held back by CapEx uncertainty.

The four major indices edged lower today, with roughly an equal number of S&P 500 components rising and falling. Trading volume in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was significantly lower, including at the ETF level, indicating very light activity during the session. On the news front, tensions are rising in the Middle East. Trump stated that if Iran fires on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. will strike Iranian bridges and power facilities. Iran has threatened to strike the energy infrastructure of America's Middle Eastern allies. Separately, the Bank of Japan maintained its forward guidance on rate hikes and is considering increasing their frequency.

Let's start with Texas Instruments. After its earnings report, EPS came in at $2.14, up from $1.41 in the same quarter last year and above the market consensus of $1.94. Revenue was $5.46 billion, up from $4.45 billion a year ago. The current price is $285, with support at $263 and resistance at $312. The stop-loss is at $263. The stock is trading sideways at a high level after earnings. The valuation is a bit rich, but it hasn't broken key support, so it's safe for now. A break above $312 would point to new highs, while a break below $263 could trigger a deeper correction toward the $200 area.

IBM is currently at $205, with key resistance at $257. The technical picture is weakening, and the company has lowered its full-year sales guidance. It needs to break above $257 to reverse the downtrend; otherwise, it could continue to probe lower. At its current price, it's near the lower end of its 2027 forward valuation range, so it's not expensive.

ServiceNow is around $100 and is testing resistance after hours. It has support from the June lows, with resistance at $120. The company's results were solid, and it's at a key resistance level. Watch to see if it can hold above the $100–$103 range over the next couple of days. A break above $120 would open up a bullish right-side entry, while below that, patience is needed.

After its earnings report, Tesla is at $358, with support at $315 and resistance at $419. The stop-loss is at $315. It's at the lower end of a wide trading range, with few fundamental bright spots. At this level, it could be considered for a swing trade. The risk/reward looks like this: roughly $60 upside to $419 versus about $40 downside to the $315 stop. A break below $315 would point to a move into the "two-hundreds."

Google is currently at $341, with support at $298. Its core advertising and cloud businesses are growing strongly, and AI monetization is progressing well. However, the lack of clarity on the 2027 CapEx growth rate has created a huge gap between buy-side and sell-side expectations—buy-side expects 70–80% growth, while sell-side expects 20–30%—which is weighing on the stock. At its current price, it's in the middle of its 2026/2027 forward valuation range, so it's not expensive, but it will take time for clarity to emerge.

On the macro and geopolitical front, tensions in the Middle East are escalating, and the Bank of Japan may accelerate its pace of rate hikes, which could impact market risk appetite. In terms of sector rotation, there's a seesaw effect between semiconductors and software, as well as among the Big Four tech stocks. Changes in CapEx expectations could lead to rapid capital shifts between sectors.

Stock-specific risks: Texas Instruments faces valuation risk. IBM has lowered its full-year sales guidance and lacks near-term catalysts. ServiceNow's stock has rallied to a strong resistance level after earnings, so be wary of a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario with a gap up and sell-off the next day. Tesla's earnings missed expectations, with a significant EPS miss, free cash flow turning negative, challenges in mass-producing its robot, and extremely high stock price volatility. Google's core risk is the uncertainty around its 2027 CapEx growth rate. The gap between buy-side and sell-side expectations is as much as $100 billion. If growth ultimately slows, it could lead to a significant downward revision in forward EPS for high-expectation sectors like semiconductors, dragging down Google and related stocks.

Regarding earnings uncertainty, next week's reports from Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta—especially their CapEx guidance—will be crucial and could reshape market expectations for tech capital spending.

Google's upward revision to its 2026 capital expenditure today wasn't huge, especially compared to its current $200 billion level. The key is 2027. With such a wide gap in market expectations—buy-side and sell-side analysts are so far apart—it will just take time for things to settle. The rest will depend on the CapEx numbers from Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta to see if they can provide more clarity. Alright, that covers the main tech earnings for today. I'll see you a little later tomorrow. Take care.