Hello everyone, welcome back to the U.S. stock market analysis channel. I'm lorder. It's Thursday evening, July 24, 2026, Eastern Time. Market sentiment was broadly poor today, with all four major indices under pressure throughout the session. They opened lower, bounced a bit, but quickly fell back. There was another bounce around midday, but the overall trend remained under pressure into the close. Today felt different from the past few days. The Nasdaq led the decline, and semiconductors also saw a coordinated drop. In the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, only ten stocks were up, twenty were down. The few bright spots were some memory stocks and a handful of names, but gains were only a few tenths of a percent — barely a move. The only stocks up about three points were CRDO and MU. It's been a while since we've seen big tech and semiconductors fall together.

My stance is bearish and cautious. Overall market sentiment has deteriorated, with a risk-off signal emerging from the coordinated decline in tech and semiconductors. Surging oil prices and Treasury yields breaking through previous highs are intensifying inflation and rate hike fears, which could pressure high-valuation growth stocks. It's important to closely watch the S&P 500's key support level. A break below could trigger a broad market pullback.

At the ETF level today, healthcare and industrials held up okay, but most other sectors were essentially tumbling. As I've mentioned before, if the market is a seesaw — some sectors up, others down — that's less panicky. But when everything falls together, that's a clear sign of rising risk aversion. Even though the VIX is still around 18, not yet above 20 or 22, it still warrants attention. There are two fundamental factors that the market hadn't been pricing in urgently, but which have shifted dramatically over the past week or so: oil prices and Treasury yields.

Oil prices have surged violently due to escalating geopolitical tensions, with Brent crude touching $102, fueling inflation concerns. The 10-year Treasury yield has broken through its previous high of 4.697%. The market is now fully pricing in one rate hike in 2026, with the probability of a second exceeding 50%. Add to that the ongoing U.S. military engagement with Iran, which has been going on for over ten days with no end in sight. All these factors are mixed in, along with the November midterm elections. The outcome is very important — in some ways even more so than the presidential election two years ago. If problems arise, we could see more policy-driven market confusion after October.

First, the S&P 500 ETF SPY is currently at $738. Key support is at $727. If that breaks, expect a pullback of roughly 5% to $695, which is near the 200-day moving average. Below that, the range is $630 to $672.

The Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ has already broken down. Support at $693 has been lost, and any bounce is under pressure. If the S&P breaks $727, QQQ could fall another roughly 7% to its 200-day moving average.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ETF SOXX has also broken down. It found a temporary floor and bounced around $532, but the bounce is under pressure. If the S&P breaks first, SOXX could fall again toward $532, a drop of about 9% to 10%, or even lower, around 16%.

Google GOOGL needs to hold the key support level of $298. If that's lost, the downside risk expands to $257. Google also reported its first quarter of negative free cash flow, which is a risk factor to watch.

Intel INTC is up about 3% after hours, currently around $100. But speculation is heavy, and the technical risk is significant. There's heavy overhead resistance in the $103 to $105 and $115 to $122 ranges. Support below is weak, with the 200-day moving average around $65. If it can't close above $110 tomorrow and instead closes lower, that's a signal to exit. Valuation is also stretched, with a forward P/E of about 66.6 times.

Lockheed Martin LMT is up about 10% after its earnings report, now above $500. It has broken out of its bottoming range, and the technical picture is improving. But the fundamentals depend on congressional supplemental appropriations, which involve a complex process and slow growth expectations. This is more suited for a long-term position than a short-term pop. Overhead resistance lies in the $567 to $591 and $605 to $636 ranges.

On the macro side, oil prices are rising rapidly due to ongoing escalation in Middle East geopolitical conflicts. The 10-year Treasury yield has broken through its previous high, intensifying inflation and rate hike expectations. Structurally, the coordinated decline in tech and semiconductors is a signal of rising risk aversion. On the policy and event front, the outlook for the U.S. Congress's supplemental appropriations bill for the Middle East conflict is uncertain in the Senate, affecting defense stock expectations. Rate hike expectations are rising; while the July meeting is likely to hold steady, the probability of a hike has risen to 35%. The November 2026 midterm elections could bring policy uncertainty.

Stock-specific risks: Intel's valuation is high, its technical rally has been too fast, support is weak, and speculation is heavy. Google reported its first quarter of negative free cash flow and needs to hold the key support level of $298. Systemic risks: If the S&P 500 breaks below the key support of $727, it could trigger a broad market pullback of roughly 5% or more. If the entire AI investment narrative fails to deliver on monetization, it could lead to widespread declines.

Things are complicated. There's debt, there's leverage, and now interest rates are heading higher, raising costs. Add in the possibility that the Fed might actually go on a rate-hiking spree, tightening the money supply and draining liquidity — it's a tough spot. I hope everyone stays cautiously optimistic. That's all for today's show. Have a great weekend, and I'll see you next Monday around 8 p.m. Eastern Time.