Hello everyone, welcome back to the U.S. Stock Analysis Channel. I'm Lorder.

Short-term bearish or cautious on the semiconductor sector, relatively neutral or cautious on mega-cap tech stocks and overall market sentiment. The market is being impacted by multiple negative headlines for semiconductors, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index showing weakness. However, overall market sentiment hasn't completely deteriorated, as the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index rose. Previously crowded institutional trades of going long semiconductors and shorting mega-cap tech have been unwound, suggesting market dispersion may converge. This week requires attention on mega-cap tech earnings and the Federal Reserve meeting.

The market initially opened higher on easing geopolitical tensions, but a series of negative semiconductor headlines emerged, causing sentiment to fade. These included NVIDIA providing a large financing guarantee for OpenAI, raising concerns about circular cash flows; reports that China has begun mass-producing its own deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machines, impacting ASML; and statements from Chinese memory companies about enhanced self-sufficiency, increasing potential future market supply.

Today, aside from the energy and semiconductor sectors, the broader market performed reasonably well. Most S&P 500 components rose, and the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index posted solid gains. Mega-cap tech stocks were mixed, with Alphabet GOOGL, Microsoft MSFT, and Apple AAPL performing okay, while Amazon AMZN and Meta Platforms META were slightly weaker. The software sector ETF performed well today after recent volatility.

Semiconductor Sector Stocks:
Micron Technology MU: Weak in the short term, with decent buying interest. The key is whether it can hold the medium-term support zone around 778-813. A break below 778 could lead to further declines.
SNDK: High technical risk, subject to emotional selling. It has retraced about 50% from its highs, with weak support. Medium-term support is around 1000.
SK Hynix: Lacks support in the U.S. market, performing poorly, primarily following trends in the Korean market.
ASML ASML: Bullish long-term, but the current price around $1600 is too aggressive. Mass production of Chinese DUV lithography machines is a long-term threat, but substitution in the EUV space remains difficult. An appropriate long-term buying zone may be in the $1000-$1400 range.
NVIDIA NVDA: Impacted by the credit risk event tied to its binding guarantee for OpenAI. After breaking down from a head-and-shoulders top pattern, the theoretical downside target points to around $180. Critical support is at $175, and a break below must be guarded against. A break below $175 could trigger a broader decline in the semiconductor sector. The long-term fundamental story remains unchanged, and prices above $175 are still within an acceptable range.

Mega-Cap Tech Earnings Volatility Expectations:
Microsoft MSFT: Expected to see significant post-earnings volatility. The lower bound of the expected range is around $360-$361, with the upper bound around $418-$419. The current price has room to move in either direction, requiring patience for a clearer trend.
Apple AAPL: Relatively the safest, with post-earnings expected volatility having little impact on its technical structure. The lower bound of the range is around $321, the upper bound around $349, with potential to make new highs on the upside.
Amazon AMZN: The post-earnings expected volatility range has a lower bound around $214 and an upper bound around $246. Its long-term prospects are tied to the success of AI monetization.
Meta Platforms META: Expected to see significant post-earnings volatility. Key support is at $559, with the upper bound of the range around $645. A break below $559 would signal a failed breakout, returning to a consolidation pattern; an upward move could recover recent losses.

Key Index Technicals:
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index SOX: Hit by negative news, it tested its first support line intraday with strong buying interest. The technical picture is broken, and any rebound will face pressure. Watch to see if it can hold the second support zone of 450-467. A failure could lead to a test near the 200-day moving average.
Nasdaq 100 Index NDX: The technical picture is broken. The key level of 693 has been breached, and any rebound will face pressure.
S&P 500 Index SPX: The benchmark for overall market sentiment. It is not broken yet, with key support at 727. A break below 727 could lead to broader market weakness.

Semiconductor Sector Systemic Risk: Multiple headwinds—increased memory chip supply expectations, progress in domestic Chinese lithography, the NVIDIA credit risk event—could continue to pressure the sector. If the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index loses the key 450-467 support zone, it could trigger deeper declines.
Individual Stock Event Risk: NVIDIA's deep ties to OpenAI mean any cash flow issues at OpenAI would directly impact NVIDIA's balance sheet and credit rating.
Earnings Volatility Risk: Following earnings this week from mega-cap tech stocks like Microsoft MSFT, Apple AAPL, Amazon AMZN, and Meta Platforms META, share prices could experience significant volatility due to disappointing results or capital expenditure guidance.
Technical Breakdown Risk: The Nasdaq 100 Index and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index have already broken down technically. If the S&P 500 Index breaks below 727 support, it could trigger broader risk-off sentiment in the market.
Macro Policy Risk: The Federal Reserve meeting and related policy commentary could impact overall market risk appetite.

Technically, both the semiconductor and Nasdaq 100 indices have broken down, meaning any rebounds will face pressure and require caution. The S&P 500 is in relatively better shape, not yet broken, with $727 as its key defensive line. Overall market sentiment still hinges on the S&P's performance. This week, we need to patiently await more earnings reports from large tech companies and news related to capital expenditures. That's all for today. Thank you, everyone.