Hello everyone, welcome back to the U.S. Stock Analysis channel, I'm lorder.

Today's core view is to shift to a wait-and-see stance on the semiconductor sector; it's not advisable to continue shorting it in the near term. Meanwhile, I hold a bullish or watchful stance on specific stocks like Corning GLW, AMD, and ServiceNow NOW at certain price levels.

The market is accelerating its sell-off in semiconductors, with capital rotating into non-AI stocks. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell over four points today and is on the verge of losing its first line of defense. However, I want to specifically caution against shorting semiconductors at this current level.

There are four main reasons. First, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index found support around its 100-day moving average, near $480, and saw an intraday V-shaped rebound. Second, short sellers may take profits at this level. Third, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing oversold territory, which could easily trigger a technical rebound. Fourth, the current risk-reward ratio for shorting is unfavorable, with a potential downside of about six percent, while the rebound potential could exceed ten percent. Therefore, shorting is prohibited here; shift to a wait-and-see stance. The rebound target looks toward approximately $550.

Now let's look at a few specific stocks.

First is Corning GLW. The overvaluation in the company's fundamentals has been digested, and the current price is becoming more reasonable. Technically, it's in a consolidation range. The lower extreme support of this range is between $88 and $95, a level that combines technical support with valuation appeal. The upper range, between $124 and $137, has now broken down and turned into a resistance zone. If the stock rebounds, watch to see if it can break through this resistance zone. The current view is to wait and see or monitor.

Next is Tesla TSLA. It has broken below $315, entering a new consolidation range. The lower bound is between $235 and $270, and the upper bound is between $315 and $368. For swing traders, you should have stopped out at $315. The next opportunity is to look for signs of a bottom below $270 to go long, targeting the $315 to $368 range. For aggressive long-term investors, you could consider averaging down below $270, for instance, in the $235 to $270 range.

Now, AMD. The stock has pulled back from its highs and is currently trading around $454. It has a medium-strength support zone between $442 and $453. If the stock can hold this support and the semiconductor sector rebounds, it could consolidate at higher levels. The resistance zone is between $506 and $528; no new highs are expected before breaking through this zone. However, if it breaks below $442, it could test $366 or even below $300. Going long at the current market price is too aggressive for a long-term position. The view is to wait and see.

Finally, ServiceNow NOW. This stock is showing a potential anomaly signal of "small incremental accumulation," characterized by a gradual price increase accompanied by persistent but not massive buying volume. Watch to see if it can break above $120, with the break needing to be confirmed by the opening or closing price. Subsequent upside targets after a breakout are $125, followed by the strong resistance zone between $140 and $157. Before breaking above $120, chasing the rally is not advisable.

The market is never smooth sailing. There are several important risk events to be wary of tomorrow.

First is macro event risk. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the Chair's press conference are scheduled for tomorrow. The market widely expects the Fed to hold rates steady between 3% and 3.75%, with money markets pricing in only a 30% probability of a hike tomorrow. However, one significant firm has issued an independent analysis predicting the Fed will hike by 25 basis points tomorrow. If such an unexpected move occurs, the market could be caught off guard and thrown into chaos. Additionally, Meta and Microsoft MSFT report earnings after the close, which is also very important; poor results could trigger volatility.

Next is systemic risk. Pay attention to the actions of CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) strategy funds. If the S&P 500 index falls to specific levels, such as around 7200 or around 6765, it could trigger massive programmatic selling, exacerbating market declines.

Then there's sector rotation risk. Market capital is currently rotating away from semiconductor and AI-related stocks into non-AI stocks. Volatility in the semiconductor sector may persist.

Finally, there's individual stock fundamental and trade execution risk. Earnings for companies like AMD have not yet been reported, and their forward valuations are based on growth expectations. If growth slows, valuations could face further pressure. Also, all mentioned support levels, resistance levels, and trading plans need to be confirmed with real-time prices. Breakouts must be confirmed by the opening or closing price; intraday fluctuations are not valid.

Alright, we covered a lot today, from sectors to individual stocks, and the risks we need to be vigilant about. At the market's current level, the probability between bullish and bearish outcomes is roughly fifty-fifty; there are opportunities on both sides. We'll see you again at the same time tomorrow.