Hello everyone, welcome back to the U.S. Stock Market Analysis channel, I'm lorder.

Our current market stance is cautious and watchful. The market experienced a broad risk-off sell-off following remarks from Fed Chair Powell, becoming highly sensitive to interest rates. The S&P 500 index is temporarily holding a key support level, but we must be alert to the risk of a breakdown. On the individual stock front, Microsoft's earnings report shows smooth progress in AI monetization, while Meta is under pressure due to increased capital expenditures and lagging AI monetization.

The market saw broad risk-off behavior today. The Fed held rates steady, but Chair Powell, in the subsequent press conference, reiterated the commitment to restoring price stability and downplayed the significance of the June CPI report. His remarks directly impacted market sentiment.

The biggest reaction was first seen in the Treasury market. Yields on the 10-year and 30-year Treasuries surged significantly after Powell's comments, putting pressure on the valuations of growth stocks reliant on future cash flows. The VIX volatility index also spiked, breaking above 20, indicating rising market risk aversion.

Sector-wise, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) performed weakly, closing below the key 489 level. It attempted a rebound to 465 intraday but met resistance and fell back, closing with a large bearish candle, signaling a failed attempt to halt the decline. This sector now faces internal selling pressure while also being at the mercy of the broader market's direction.

Let's start with the major indices. The S&P 500 index closed at 729, below the key 727-741 resistance zone. The 720 level requires close attention; a break below could trigger programmatic selling. Its support zones lie at 676-695 and 653-672.

The Nasdaq 100 index closed at 661, nearing its first support zone of 645-665. For this index, consider scaling into positions, but strict position sizing control is essential.

Now, let's look at two key individual stocks. Microsoft MSFT is at 420 in after-hours trading. Its earnings report indicates smooth progress in AI monetization, which is a positive signal. However, the stock price is still oscillating within the 392-435 range without a decisive breakout. The long-term outlook remains favorable, but the risk of chasing the rally in the short term is high, with key support at 375 and 392.

Meta's META situation is different, with an after-hours price of 547. The company faces challenges with lagging AI monetization while capital expenditures continue to increase. Watch the 559 level; if it opens below this price, it would confirm a technical breakdown, potentially entering a consolidation range. While the current valuation isn't particularly high, capital expenditures could impact its free cash flow.

On the macro risk front, the market is highly sensitive to interest rates. If yields on the 10-year and 30-year Treasuries remain elevated, they will continue to pressure the valuations of tech and growth stocks.

The market risk lies in the S&P 500 index. If it breaks below the 720-727 support zone, it could trigger systematic selling, dragging down the entire market.

Individual stock risks warrant attention. Meta's META AI monetization progress is lagging, and persistently high capital expenditures could impact free cash flow, posing future risks of financing through debt issuance or equity offerings. For Microsoft MSFT, despite the positive earnings, the stock hasn't broken through key resistance, creating a risk of being caught at a short-term peak if chasing the rally.

Sector-level risks also exist. If the overall pace of AI monetization falls short of expectations, related high-valuation stocks could face significant adjustment pressure.

That concludes today's market tracking analysis. Market sentiment is tense due to interest rate expectations, and the outcome at key technical levels will determine the next direction. We remain cautious and continue to observe. I'm lorder, and I'll see you next time.