Hello everyone, welcome back to the U.S. Stock Market Analysis channel. I'm lorder.

I maintain a cautious stance on the short-term direction of the broader market and the semiconductor sector, while remaining bullish on select individual stocks for the long term. Today's sharp market rebound was primarily driven by short-term capital flows like options gamma squeezes, not a fundamental shift in risk appetite. The rebound in the semiconductor index SOXX and QQQ is technical in nature. They still need to face tests at key resistance levels, and we cannot conclude that the downtrend has definitively ended. For individual stocks, Microsoft rose strongly after its opening price broke through a key resistance level, while Amazon gained market approval as its AI investments are yielding high returns.

Today's market rebound can be described as being instantly propelled higher by a "mysterious force." That force is the options gamma squeeze. With Friday's options expiration approaching, the opening prices of many stocks directly breached important options defense structures. This forced market makers to buy stocks for hedging, dramatically pushing up share prices. Therefore, this looks more like a technical "money game."

Looking specifically, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index SOXX rebounded to around $522. This is a technically-driven rebound fueled by the gamma squeeze. It first needs to test and break above $532. The resistance zone between $550 and $584 is substantial. At this point, we cannot declare the downtrend over.

The Invesco QQQ Trust QQQ is around $691-692 in after-hours trading. This is also a technical rebound; a reversal is not yet confirmed. Swing traders should watch for signs of pressure in the $693-$724 resistance zone. Long-term investors who are already positioned can hold steady, while those not yet invested should not rush to chase the rally.

Next, let's talk about specific companies. First up is Microsoft MSFT, which stood out today. The stock effectively broke through the key $435 resistance level with its $437.9 opening price, forming a standard bullish breakout signal. The long-term outlook is positive. However, those already heavily invested should not chase it higher. Those not invested or with light positions could consider building a position in batches or waiting for a pullback to the $392-$435 support zone.

Another closely watched company is Amazon AMZN, trading near $265 after hours. Its earnings exceeded expectations, with AWS growth hitting an 18-month high. The increased capital expenditure is delivering clear returns, and AI monetization is progressing smoothly. Technically, it has broken its downtrend, looking toward previous highs with a target around $300. A solid long-term support level is near $200, while aggressive resistance levels are at $244 and $256.

In contrast, the situation for Apple AAPL is more complex. The company's valuation is high, with revenue from Greater China and Japan falling short of expectations. Service revenue growth is slowing, and it faces the challenge of balancing product price increases with demand. Strong support lies below $281, while support above $290 is weaker. Long-term holders with a cost basis below $281 can hold. Those who bought in the $290-$315 range should be mindful of volatility.

Finally, we must soberly recognize the risks in the current market. The sustainability of today's rebound is questionable. The surge was mainly driven by short-term liquidity factors, not a fundamental improvement in fundamentals or risk appetite. After the rebound, the market could face pressure and pull back at key resistance levels.

On the macro front, the yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury continues to climb, and global long-term interest rate expectations are rising. If the market begins to speculate on "diminishing liquidity" in the future, highly leveraged investors could face significant risks. Retail leverage in South Korea remains high. If, after this rebound, they increase leverage again trying to recoup losses, it could trigger another round of cascading declines.

For individual stocks, Apple's core service revenue growth slowed unexpectedly, sales in Greater China and Japan are weak, product innovation is insufficient, and it faces the dilemma of rising costs and pricing. For the semiconductor sector, be wary that the rebound might just be a "dead cat bounce." If it subsequently fails to break through multiple resistance levels, another leg down is possible.

Alright, that wraps up today's market analysis. The market is always full of surprises. Is today's surge the start of a reversal, or just another case of "crying wolf"? We'll need more time to observe. Thanks for listening. We'll see you next time.