Hello everyone, welcome back to the U.S. stock analysis channel. I’m lorder.

Trading was very thin today, marking the second consecutive day of declining volume. Our overall stance is neutral with a cautious bias, but we hold differentiated views on individual stocks. Mega-cap tech names like Google and Microsoft are facing technical headwinds or valuation debates, while some high-growth stocks are seeing extreme moves driven by divergent earnings results, highlighting the emotionally charged nature of current trading.

Let’s start with the macro backdrop. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose sharply today, as market participants priced in the possibility of a more hawkish Federal Reserve. Reports suggest that if upcoming inflation data comes in hotter than expected and market pricing continues to move in that direction, there are voices within the Fed willing to hike rates in September. This directly weighed on overall market sentiment.

On the economic data front, U.S. Challenger job cuts for July totaled 33,429, the lowest level in two years, down 27% month-over-month and 46% year-over-year. The tech sector led the layoffs, cutting 9,867 jobs. Artificial intelligence remained a primary driver of these cuts, accounting for 3%. Roughly 24% of layoffs this year have been AI-driven. Weekly initial jobless claims rose to 199,000, but still came in below the 201,000 estimate, while continuing claims also held at low levels.

The broad market was quiet, but there are plenty of individual stock stories. First, let’s look at Google, ticker GOOGL. The company is preparing to issue $25 billion in bonds—more debt, but no worries. From a valuation perspective, based on a 2027 forward valuation floor of $297, the $300 to $360 range is a zone where one can scale into a position. Existing holders can continue to hold.

For Microsoft MSFT, the technical picture is flashing some warning signals. The stock is facing a key resistance zone between $498 and $516, an area with heavy trapped positions. At the same time, the price made a new high but the RSI indicator did not, forming a bearish divergence, and it is in overbought territory, suggesting the price may need a correction. The rally occurred on generally low volume, a type of reluctant-selling advance, which could face pressure from profit-taking at this key resistance level. A volume-confirmed breakout is needed for a valid move higher; otherwise, a pullback to the moderate support zone of $469 to $498 for consolidation is possible. Because the expected pullback is limited in scope and we are bullish long-term, we are choosing to hold the position.

Speaking of emotional trading, the post-earnings moves in NET and DDOG are textbook examples. NET crushed earnings estimates and raised its forward guidance, sending the stock soaring 16% in a single day to around $330. However, the valuation is now far above its 2027 forward ceiling, which is $100 based on a 60x P/E multiple. The move is sentiment-driven. Holders can ride the trend, but the risk of chasing it is extremely high for those without a position. On the support side, there is relatively strong support between $263 and $283, and even stronger support below $230.

DDOG is a different story. Although it beat earnings estimates, decelerating sequential growth triggered a market sell-off, with the stock falling 19% in a single day to around $230. The valuation is similarly stretched; its 2027 forward ceiling, based on a 40x P/E, is $115. The fundamentals are solid, but the price is too high, so we do not recommend buying. Watch the support zone from $219 to $236, and stronger support below $166.

As for UBER, the valuation is not high, with a 2027 expected range of $86 to $130, but the technical picture remains under pressure. The core trading range is $60 to $76.5. A move above $76.5 would halt the decline, and a right-side entry for an uptrend requires clearing $81.1. On the downside, a break below $60 would turn the trend bearish, implying a prolonged recovery cycle, and one should consider exiting. The area between these two levels is where it will choose its direction.

Finally, let’s look at SpaceX. After the first batch of its lock-up period expired, shares rose 6% on heavy volume, suggesting selling pressure may be lighter than anticipated. The market expects significant price swings within the $100 to $135 range. We need to monitor price action around the subsequent second batch of share unlocks. If the stock can stabilize above the psychological $100 level with sustained volume, it could attract long-term institutional money and form a base.

On the macro level, rising Treasury yields and hawkish rate-hike expectations are the sword hanging overhead. At the individual stock level, Microsoft faces technical risks from a key resistance zone and bearish divergence, with a potential for pullback. Highly valued stocks like NET and DDOG are experiencing violent swings, driven by market sentiment, and prices can deviate significantly from fundamentals, making chasing them high-risk. On the event front, SpaceX has further lock-up expirations ahead, which could bring new selling pressure. Additionally, betting on earnings over the long term may prove to be a negative-return strategy, as post-earnings reactions are difficult to predict. Fundamentals also require continuous monitoring; the market’s high growth expectations for AI monetization in tech are already priced into stocks, and if free cash flow recovery disappoints, it could trigger price corrections.

With volume this low, the market has been pretty quiet these past two days, and there isn’t a whole lot to talk about, so we just ran through some of the major individual names for you. That’s all for today. We’ll see you next time.