Hello everyone, welcome back to the U.S. stock analysis channel. I’m lorder. All four major indices closed higher today, with the Nasdaq leading the gains, but trading volume contracted for a third straight session. The S&P 500 had a solid day overall — roughly two-thirds of its components advanced, and nine of the eleven sectors closed higher while only two declined. The market has now returned to a slow, grinding grind higher. The nonfarm payrolls report was the main driver of today’s price action. The unexpectedly weak data prompted market participants to dial back expectations for Fed rate hikes, and that dovish repricing supported equities, Treasuries, and precious metals, while weighing on the dollar. It was a relatively quiet session, so let’s use the time to dig into a few data points, understand the impact of this data-center AI wave on GDP, and see how it compares — and what the risks are — relative to the 2000 telecom boom, the dot-com bubble, and the 2005 real estate investment surge. We’ll also follow up on a few individual names, including NVIDIA, ServiceNow, UNH, and Shopify.

Our current stance is bullish. After the weak payrolls number, the market rose on growing dovish expectations, settling into a slow grind higher. The AI data-center investment wave is providing a significant boost to the economy and the stock market, but the pace of its future growth is the key risk to watch. The semiconductor sector’s fundamentals are solid; it’s under some near-term pressure, but we see a medium- to long-term breakout ahead.

Let’s start with the overall market structure. In QQQ, short positions are still relatively heavy. This kind of slow, grinding advance is what worries them most, because it doesn’t sell off deeply — any dip gets quickly bought, and then it slowly climbs. As it grinds higher, it can suddenly spike, trigger their stops, and force a short squeeze that sends it straight to the prior highs. Right now, QQQ is tracing out a move toward those highs. Unless a rapid, negative catalyst drives it below 693, the Nasdaq side doesn’t have much of a problem. The S&P 500 and the Dow have already hit new highs, clearly driven by passive index buying pushing things up, so QQQ would need to find a very good reason to sell off on its own. Otherwise, it’s likely to keep grinding higher here as well. It’s really not far from the prior high around 747 — maybe three or four points away — so it’s not a difficult hurdle.

One thing to note, though: key sectors like semiconductors and software have not made new highs in sync with the broad market, which signals some internal momentum divergence. The semiconductor sector’s overall momentum is weaker than the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, and it needs time to base and break out.

NVDA — All indicators remain intact, with a monthly golden cross appearing. On the daily chart, it’s approaching overbought territory, but overbought alone is not a sufficient condition for a sell-off; you need to see divergence to confirm. Right now, there’s no divergence, and the weekly and monthly indicators are healthy, supporting a continued push higher. If it rallies quickly on insufficient volume, it could form a divergence at elevated levels and lead to a pullback. After breaking through 216, the structure points to new highs, with an upside target of 236. We recommend holding and looking for a slow grind higher.

NOW — It gapped up today, breaking through the key 120 level with strong momentum. On the upside, watch the resistance zone from 147 to 159, with an extreme target range of 180 to 193. On the downside, there’s moderate support from 125 to 140; the 100 to 120 area represents a fundamental buy zone, and below 82 is strong support. The fundamental valuation support is robust, so a deep sell-off is unlikely. Even a break below 110 wouldn’t flip the signal to bearish. However, as it moves higher, it will face significant resistance zones that could trigger wave-like selling pressure.

UNH — It’s currently in a time-consuming, range-bound consolidation phase. There’s heavy resistance around 440, and it needs to see valuation expansion on the front end — likely waiting until 2028 — to break out above 540. Long-term support underneath is solid. Overall, it’s a wait-and-see situation.

SHOP — After earnings, the stock is forming a high-level, sideways consolidation on declining volume. This is not a topping pattern, but it needs to be watched. Technically, it needs to break above 158 to signal new highs, and it hasn’t done that yet. Valuation remains stretched, so we’re mainly on the sidelines here.

This AI data-center capex cycle is growing very fast. Its share of GDP is projected to rise from 1.4% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2027. If the pace of capex deceleration from 2027 to 2028 is too rapid — similar to the swift retreat seen in the 2000 telecom boom or the 2008 real estate investment bust — it could trigger an economic recession and a sharp equity market decline. This is a core risk that requires ongoing attention.

The nonfarm payrolls data was weak, but future inflation readings could still be choppy, influencing the Fed’s policy path. 2028 is an election year, which typically brings elevated market volatility. At the individual stock level, SHOP and UNH currently have relatively high valuations, which limits near-term upside. If sectors like semiconductors get bid up too quickly again in the future, be alert to pullback risk and avoid chasing rallies or selling into panics.

The market performed well overall this week. We’ll be watching to see when the Nasdaq pushes to a new high next week. I wish you all a great weekend, and continued investing success in the week ahead. See you here same time next week — don’t miss it.