Hello everyone, welcome back to the U.S. stock analysis channel. I’m lorder. The new week started off fairly quiet, with the four major indices closing slightly lower and volume continuing to shrink. Driven by a surge in international crude oil prices, the energy sector was the standout performer among the S&P 500’s eleven sectors, rising 4.6 percent, while real estate, utilities, and technology lagged behind. As international energy prices jumped more than six points in one go, U.S. Treasury yields moved higher across the board, with the 10-year yield recovering all the losses it had posted since last Tuesday in a single session. So, if you’re holding small- to mid-cap growth stocks or tech names, you probably felt the pinch today—these stocks generally underperformed and got hit especially hard. We still need to keep a close eye on the 10-year Treasury yield.

This Wednesday’s CPI report will be the next major catalyst shaping expectations for the Fed. Today, Fed voter Hammack for 2026 further reinforced the hawkish sentiment, suggesting that multiple rate hikes may be needed and advocating for action as soon as possible. At the same time, she views the U.S. economy as being at full employment. Last week’s nonfarm payrolls data was weak, which at the time lowered rate-hike expectations, but if Wednesday’s CPI number comes in hot again, the probability of a September hike will likely get revised upward. Ahead of the CPI release, the odds currently priced in for a September rate increase stand at around 51 percent. On balance, we maintain a cautiously optimistic stance.

Today we’re mainly going to talk about three stocks: NVDA, MSFT, and an earnings and valuation update for BRK.B. Plus, I’ll share a new add-to-position plan—a plan for a name we already hold—and we’ll get into that in detail toward the end.

Let’s start with the news that NVDA is continuing its circular financing. A group of major U.S. investment firms is about to partner with NVDA to fund artificial intelligence projects. That sounds like a big splash, but the market has been debating this kind of “circular financing” model for a while. Over the long term, if it fails to generate real cash flow, it could trigger risks similar to the 2000 dot-com bubble. In the short term, however, the stock has already broken above $216, sitting at a breakout level with an upward trend, so the suggestion is to hold with the trend.

Next, let’s look at MSFT. The company’s fundamentals remain strong, but the stock is facing resistance at the $516 level. On the technical side, the daily chart is showing overbought conditions and bearish divergence, which need to be worked off. There are two ways that can happen: either a high-volume rally that breaks through resistance and then pulls back, or a straightforward price retracement. If a pullback does occur, the $469 to $487 range would be a decent opportunity to add to the position. For now, staying on the sidelines makes sense.

Now, turning to BRK.B. The company accelerated its buybacks in the second quarter, which typically signals that management views the stock as trading below intrinsic value. After breaking above $510, the stock has entered a right-side trading range, with overhead resistance between $529 and $538. That said, this company grows relatively slowly, so don’t expect it to rally quickly. It’s a wait-and-see situation here as well.

Finally, let’s discuss the add-to-position plan for TSM. On valuation, the current price is below the 2027 median valuation estimate of $457. On the chart, $429 is a strong resistance level; until the stock breaks above that, there are opportunities to pick up shares on the downside. A reasonable accumulation zone is $358 to $375, and if the market delivers a wave of panic that knocks the price down to $320 to $350, you could add a bit more. But considering that my AI-related stock exposure is already fairly heavy, even if TSM breaks above $429, I won’t be chasing it aggressively. This add-to-position plan depends entirely on whether the market offers a chance for a risk-off flush.

The biggest thing to watch this week is the CPI data. If the reported number comes in well above expectations, it could push Treasury yields higher, which in turn would weigh on growth and tech stocks. At the individual stock level, MSFT faces technical pullback risk; BRK.B grows slowly, limiting its upside potential; and the TSM add-to-position plan is predicated on a market pullback. Given that overall AI-related positioning is already heavy, I wouldn’t suggest chasing these names aggressively.

There are plenty of other earnings reports coming out this week as well, which will also act as market catalysts. We’ll need to watch closely how the CPI data comes in and whether it becomes a fresh driver for the market. Alright, that’s all for today’s episode. We’ll be back at the same time tomorrow—don’t miss it.