Hello everyone, welcome back to the U.S. stock analysis channel. I’m lorder.

Our stance today is wait-and-see. Overall market sentiment got a lift from the CPI data coming in as expected, but the major indexes and certain sectors are facing key resistance levels. At the individual stock level, some high-volatility names — think cloud computing and optical modules — are showing a divergence between technicals and fundamentals, so you need to carefully assess the risk-reward. Also, watch whether capital concentrates in semiconductors or distributes more evenly after the market’s leverage reset; that will determine the direction of the next sector rotation.

First, let’s look at today’s important CPI data. The overall July CPI held no surprises and was broadly in line with market expectations. Headline CPI rose 0.1% month-over-month, matching estimates, and the year-over-year rate eased from 3.5% to 3.4%, also in line. Core CPI increased 0.2% month-over-month, consistent with consensus, and the year-over-year rate dipped from 2.6% to 2.5%. Breaking it down, shelter costs rose 0.1% month-over-month, accounting for roughly two-thirds of the monthly increase in the all-items index. Food prices also edged up 0.1%, while energy prices fell 1.5%. Overall, this report was encouraging for the market, so the market performed reasonably well today.

That said, new highs in the indexes don’t mean every stock can keep climbing. If leverage is concentrated in only a few sectors, we could see a repeat of the decoupling between index components and the index itself — what we often call “making money on the index but not on your positions.” Many of you may find that if you’re not in the right stocks, your account can still lose money even as the index surges to new highs.

Speaking of sectors, semiconductors and software showed a bit of a seesaw effect again today. The semiconductor sector did well, but software pulled back. Semiconductors are currently facing a resistance zone between 550 and 580; today they opened higher but faded, so we need to watch whether they can break through convincingly. The software sector is facing resistance at 107 and edged lower today. We need to see whether market funds choose to bid up both sides simultaneously or revert to this seesaw dynamic.

Next, let’s track a few stocks that many of you have been asking about.

Starting with cloud-related names. CRWV currently needs to break above 140 technically to target new highs; it’s still far from that resistance, and overhead supply is fairly heavy. NBIS is trading around 259, and the technical picture is relatively strong — it has already broken out to the right side — but volatility is high and the stop-loss width is wide, roughly 20%. Its support levels are at 208 and 231, with resistance in the 259 to 267 range.

Now, the optical module space. AIT has moved above 900, and the technicals are clearly in a right-side breakout, but the price may have already priced in roughly the next 18 months of growth — that’s based on a 40x P/E calculation — so the volatility risk is high. Its support sits at 829, with resistance at 932. COHR is currently trading around 355; the price looks potentially overvalued, and the technicals are in a choppy range. It needs to break above 400 to target the prior high of 440, with support at 328.

Next, a follow-up on Microsoft MSFT. The daily chart shows RSI overbought conditions and bearish divergence, which requires a pullback to repair. An additional decline of about 2% should complete the technical reset.

Finally, APP, currently trading around 303. On the weekly chart, it may be forming a head-and-shoulders top. After breaking below the key support at 317, the risk of further weakness is significant. The next key support lies in the 252 to 297 zone; if that breaks, the downside target is below 180.

The stocks mentioned today — like CRWV, NBIS, and AIT — are extremely volatile, with wide stop-loss ranges that can reach around 20%, making them unsuitable for investors with low risk tolerance. Additionally, some names, such as AIT and COHR, may have current prices that already reflect earnings growth far into the future, posing a risk of overvaluation. APP has already broken below the key support at 317; if it further breaks below the 252 to 297 zone, a deep downtrend could begin. Finally, both the semiconductor and software sectors are at critical resistance levels, sector rotation remains uncertain, and we need to stay alert to the risk of the indexes decoupling from individual stocks.

The market may be seeing some new shifts lately in positioning and at the institutional level. We can only update you with clear information through our daily tracking. Alright, let’s wrap it here for today. We’ll see you in the next episode — don’t miss it.