Hello everyone, welcome back to the U.S. stock analysis channel. I’m lorder. Today is Friday evening, August 14, 2026, Eastern Time. The market today was truly thin — the S&P 500 saw its lowest volume day in about three months. So there isn’t much to update on the price action front. Mainly, I want to walk you through the major institutions’ Q2 position reports before the weekend: what they added, what they cut, and the latest moves from the Big Short, Michael Burry. If I had to sum it up in one phrase, it would be: he’s really going in bearish.

First, let’s talk about the overall stance, which currently favors the bulls. Major institutional holdings are concentrated in semiconductors and large-cap tech, reflecting the market’s chase for strong cyclical plays and earnings expectations. Even with thin volume, the Nasdaq’s modest rise after its breakout will put pressure on the shorts. I myself also hold a long position.

There are two economic data points worth noting today. First, U.S. July retail sales fell 0.6% month-over-month, significantly missing the expected 0.1% gain. Excluding auto sales, sales dropped 0.3% versus an expected 0.2% increase. Excluding both autos and gasoline, the figure fell 0.2%. The closely watched control group sales declined 0.4, compared to an expected 0.3 gain. This indicates that the component most closely tied to consumer spending in GDP was very weak, and the loss of consumer spending momentum is quite clear.

The other data point is the University of Michigan’s August consumer sentiment index, which plunged to 51, missing the expected 54.5 and the prior reading of 55.2, snapping two consecutive months of gains. The current conditions index came in at 51.8, versus an expected 55 and a prior 54.8. The consumer expectations index was 50.6, versus an expected 55.2 and a prior 55.4. All of these figures missed expectations by a wide margin. Notably, only 8% of consumers surveyed expect their income growth to outpace inflation over the next year. The one-year inflation expectation ticked up slightly to 4.3% from 4.2%, while the five-year inflation expectation held steady at 3.3%.

Turning to the market technicals, volume was thin, with the S&P 500 hitting a near three-month low, suggesting a strong wait-and-see sentiment. We need a pickup in volume to confirm direction. The Nasdaq has already broken above its prior high and is in a post-breakout, low-volume drift higher — there’s no reason for shorts to hold positions here. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, however, has yet to break through its resistance level and remains under pressure. The S&P 500 faces key resistance around the 7,900 level, which also serves as a stop-loss zone for shorts. A break above 7,900 could trigger large-scale short covering, fueling further upside.

The institutional Q2 position reports show capital concentrated in semiconductors and large-cap tech. Behind this is the chase for progress in AI monetization. Two quarters ago, I analyzed the AI monetization status of several major players. Now, looking at the data, we can see the progress and the relative strength more clearly.

Of course, everyone is also worried about an AI bubble. I’ve said before, the day I put the word “bust” in the title, that’s the signal I’m getting ready to head for the exits. But that’s not now — we have to give it at least another quarter or half a year, so there’s no need to wait for it daily. However, if signs of a bubble do emerge in the future, based on historical patterns, there are a few indicators most likely to appear early. I’ll dedicate some time this weekend to talk specifically about my views on that.

On the other side, the persistent short positioning of the Big Short, Michael Burry, represents significant bearish force and market disagreement. He has shorted QQQ, Micron MU, and others. If his thesis is validated, the market could turn.

Persistently low market volume could lead to a sideways, directionless grind. If the S&P 500 fails to break through the key 7,900 resistance level, it may not trigger the upward momentum from short covering. Although the current view is bullish, the AI space carries the risk of a future bubble, and related signs need to be monitored — though that phase has not yet arrived. The positioning of the Big Short, Michael Burry, also reminds us that significant market disagreement remains.

That wraps up this episode’s analysis of institutional Q2 position changes and Michael Burry’s latest moves. When the market is quiet, it’s actually a good time to observe where the big money is flowing. See you next time.