Hello everyone, welcome back to the U.S. stock analysis channel. I’m lorder. A new week has begun, and volume picked up slightly compared to last week—trading activity is finally showing a bit more life. All four major indexes declined today. Within the S&P 500, decliners far outnumbered advancers. Nine of the eleven sectors closed lower, with only two finishing in the green. The market painted a picture of broad-based selling.

Our stance today is neutral with a wait-and-see tilt. Although the market sold off broadly, the semiconductor sector showed relative strength. Looking at fund flows, hedge funds have been net buyers of U.S. equities recently, with a particular preference for technology, healthcare, and financials, while reducing exposure to real estate, energy, and utilities. Major tech names like Microsoft MSFT and Meta are currently in a phase of technical repair or sideways consolidation. The near-term direction is unclear, and we need to wait for more definitive signals.

Let’s first examine the capital flows in the software and semiconductor sectors. The software sector ETF, IGV, hit an intraday high of 106.75 today but stalled at the 107 resistance level. The short-term breakout failed, and it weakened. The daily bearish divergence is in the process of being repaired. Hedge fund positioning here is relatively neutral; the primary activity has been short covering, while long-side additions have been cautious. Whether follow-through upward momentum materializes will depend on sustained capital inflows.

On the semiconductor side, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index SOXX outperformed the broader market today, rising 1.58% and trading in the 559 to 560 range. However, it remains below the 580 resistance level and is exhibiting a rotational pattern against IGV, without yet establishing sustained strength. The good news is that memory stocks within the sector, such as Micron and SNDK, have completed their basing breakouts, which helps the entire sector stabilize. Judging by hedge fund positioning, they remain constructive on the semiconductor sector’s follow-through bullish momentum.

Now let’s quickly run through a few key individual stocks and indexes.

Microsoft MSFT: The daily RSI overbought condition and bearish divergence have been fully repaired, and the stock has now entered a phase of share exchange. In the short term, it may trade sideways or grind slightly lower, building energy for a subsequent move higher. Long-term holders don’t need to over-manage their positions, while those looking to initiate a position can watch for pullback opportunities. Its support level sits at 469, with resistance at 487.

Meta failed to break through the 632 resistance level and has pulled back near its breakout point. The daily chart is neutral-to-weak, the weekly chart is neutral, and the monthly chart is at a favorable low. It needs time to consolidate sideways and build a base, waiting for fundamental improvements such as AI monetization and capital expenditure adjustments. We suggest allowing an observation period of roughly six months. On the downside, the low from August 3rd can serve as a reference.

Amazon AMZN declined on elevated volume today but held the 260 level, which marks the right-side breakout point. This is a normal pullback after breaking to new highs. The long-term trend remains unchanged, and the pullback can be viewed as an opportunity for long-term positioning.

Next, let’s look at the Nasdaq ETF, QQQ. We’ve broken the 693 to 724 range into two parts for observation, which allows us to detect shifts in strength or weakness earlier. If it breaks below the 705 to 724 zone, the trend will turn weak, potentially triggering market risk aversion and a rise in the VIX. A genuine bearish trend would only be confirmed if it breaks below 693. For aggressive bulls, the 705 to 724 zone represents a pullback entry area.

Finally, a risk disclosure. The overall market is in a broad-based decline, trading activity has only improved modestly, and sentiment is leaning cautious. Major tech stocks and sectors are all facing key resistance levels, and whether they can break through remains uncertain. Continued choppiness or pullbacks are possible. On the geopolitical front, conflicting reports regarding U.S.-Iran relations could trigger volatility in energy markets and a rise in risk-averse sentiment. Additionally, hedge fund long positioning in the software sector is not aggressive, casting doubt on the sustainability of further upside momentum. If QQQ breaks below the 705 support level, it could exacerbate the market correction.

That wraps up today’s concise market update and analysis. We’ll see you at the same time tomorrow—don’t miss it.