Welcome back to the U.S. stock analysis podcast. I’m Lordor. It is now 7:55 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, August 19, 2026.

Overall market sentiment today was actually decent, but the semiconductor space was clearly lacking. We hold a cautiously optimistic short-term view on the broad market, but we are cautious and on the sidelines regarding the semiconductor sector, especially the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and certain individual names. On long-dated U.S. Treasuries, we remain bearish.

Let’s start with the big picture. In the S&P 500, 288 stocks advanced and 214 declined today. Seven of the eleven sectors were up, and four were down. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index rose more than 1%, which tells you market sentiment wasn’t poor. But the Nasdaq fell on its own today, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index had an especially rough session — 26 of its components declined while only 4 advanced. Volume contracted slightly from the prior day, which for now can be viewed as a sideways consolidation.

By sector, Health Care hit a new high today, surging 3.51%. One stock in that group put up an absolutely wild number: Moderna. Riding a wave of positive news, it shot up 176% in a single session. The catalyst was a breakthrough in clinical trials for a cancer vaccine being co-developed with Merck. However, I stopped tracking this name after the pandemic ended in 2020, so I apologize — I can’t offer any additional fundamental or technical insight on it.

On the macro front, the minutes from the July FOMC meeting were released today. Most participants favored holding rates steady, while a minority leaned toward hiking — that’s consistent with what we’ve heard before. One relatively new detail concerned the future cadence of Fed meetings. Warsh proposed holding only six regular meetings per year going forward, roughly once every two months, so that more information can accumulate between gatherings. But no decisions were made at the July meeting, and Warsh also indicated that the full-year 2026 meeting schedule will not change. That said, five committees were already established at the end of this year to examine several aspects of the Fed’s framework, so it’s quite possible that by year-end we’ll see some significant structural changes emerge from the central bank. We’ll just have to wait and see what new information surfaces toward the end of the year.

Next, let’s focus on the Treasury’s bond buyback operation. The Treasury stepped in, which gave the market a short-term confidence boost and temporarily eased the surge in bond yields. Note the word “temporarily.” If issuance keeps ramping up down the road, spending isn’t reined in, or tax-base growth slows on the economic side, none of that would be good for long-term yields. This is really a short-versus-long issue. The short end held, dealing a blow to market shorts, but over the longer term, the shorts won’t be extinguished that quickly. Once long-term bond yields retreat further to a certain level, I believe people will come back around to short Treasuries again. The current situation is only a temporary reprieve. We need to watch the trend — see whether yields can decline more in a sustained way, which would be favorable for equities. Conversely, if yields turn back up and head higher, then stocks will have to go through the whole cycle again, Bessent will have to step back in, and if forty billion isn’t enough, it might have to be bumped up to eighty billion.

With the macro out of the way, let’s zoom in on a few individual names.

First, AMD. The stock is currently around $466. Its main challenge is a rich valuation, and it’s being dragged down by the broader semiconductor sector. On the technical side, the key area to watch is the support zone from $427 to $453, which sits just below the 100-day moving average. If it breaks below that, the next support to watch is $400, but there’s a meaningful chance it could slide further toward the strong support zone between $334 and $366, which is near the 200-day moving average. To the upside, resistance sits at $506 to $528. AMD’s long-term earnings story is really a Q4 2027 narrative, so for now, patience is required — or you wait for a better entry point.

Next, Marvell, trading around $240 after hours. Its deepening partnership with Google is a positive, but the stock is already approaching the upper bound of its fiscal 2028 valuation, which is $247. There’s heavy technical resistance overhead. The first resistance band is $253 to $272, and above that lies a strong resistance zone from $278 to $318. That implies limited upside from here, and you need to be mindful of stalling risk.

And when you talk about Marvell, you have to mention Broadcom. The news that Marvell is grabbing business puts pressure on the much larger Broadcom. Broadcom’s critical support right now is the $324 to $365 range, which can be viewed as an important “entry zone.” A break below $324 would be a breakdown signal — it could mean a deceleration in growth or that institutions are heading for the exits early, which would call for risk reduction. At current prices, the stock is within a reasonable range given its high-growth profile, but it’s harder to trade than Marvell right now.

Finally, let’s run through the risk factors we touched on today. Overall weakness in the semiconductor sector could weigh on related stocks. Both AMD and Marvell face valuation pressure — the former has a high forward valuation, and the latter is already trading near its valuation ceiling. On the technical front, if AMD breaks below the $427 to $453 support, or if Broadcom breaks below $324, either could open the door to a deeper decline or signal a weakening trend. On long-dated U.S. Treasuries, the expanding debt load, persistent inflation, and elevated rate expectations mean there’s no foundation for a bull market. The Treasury’s buyback should be viewed only as a technical bounce; long-duration exposure doesn’t offer much value here. From a policy standpoint, the effect of the buyback intervention may be short-lived. If long-term yields resume a sustained move higher, that would be unfavorable for equities. As for stock-specific risks, the positive news from Marvell’s Google partnership may already be partially priced in, so you need to watch for selling pressure at those strong overhead resistance levels, while Broadcom faces competitive business diversion from Marvell.

The market is always swinging between short-term optimism and longer-term worries — we’ll keep watching. That’s all for today’s episode. Same time tomorrow — don’t miss it.