Hello everyone, welcome back to the U.S. stock analysis channel. I’m lorder. On the first trading day of September, volatility snapped awake from its August slumber with a sharp jolt. International oil prices continued to surge, Treasury yields kept climbing, and the four major equity indexes took a hit.

Our current stance is cautiously bullish. Short-term volatility is rising, but pullbacks will be treated as opportunities. On the first trading day of September, volatility picked up, and rising Treasury yields weighed on growth stocks and small- and mid-caps. The S&P 500 is relatively safe, while the Nasdaq and the Russell are already approaching key support levels. If those key supports hold, the pullback offers a chance to add to positions; if they break, the downside will open up.

The S&P 500’s overall performance today was not great, with 339 stocks declining and 160 advancing. Among the four mega-cap tech stocks that had been holding up relatively well, except for Meta, which closed higher, the other three all fell more than one percent. The S&P 500 triggered the CTA’s first sell signal intraday, causing a small wave of selling, but buying power was decent. It didn’t drop too deep before being bought up in a V-shape, and it closed temporarily above the 7,620 level. If it breaks below that again going forward, the CTA will continue to sell.

On the economic data front, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for August fell to 54.6 from 55.6, missing the expected 55.2. Looking at the sub-indices, the employment index dropped to 51.2, versus an expectation of 52.5; the prices index was flat month-over-month at 71.1, but above the expected 70.5; the new orders index slumped sharply to 50.7, compared to an expected 56.8. Additionally, July job openings came in below expectations, the hiring rate declined, and the labor market is cooling. This data is on the weak side, and stagflation risks are present.

Rising Treasury yields directly compressed the DCF valuations of growth stocks, with small- and mid-caps and tech stocks being the most affected. The Nasdaq’s beta relative to the S&P 500 is roughly between 1.2 and 1.5. When the S&P 500 pulls back 10%, a 15% pullback for the Nasdaq falls within the normal volatility range. The S&P 500’s risk has not been fully released yet; the VIX is only at 16 because the S&P 500 is still at a relatively high level and hasn’t seen a sharp spike.

Let’s focus on the positioning of a few major cap ETFs. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY is relatively safe for now, but it hasn’t yet entered a strong support zone and requires continued observation. The Invesco QQQ Trust QQQ is currently priced at 707, already very close to the key 702 level. A break below 702 would signal significant weakening, and a further break below 687 would confirm a bearish turn, with a potential pullback reaching 15%. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF IWM is now at 290, touching its 100-day moving average at 288 for the first time in five months. This is an important trend indicator. The battle between bulls and bears is intense at this level. Holding it could trigger a short squeeze, because short positions in the Russell have surged, with open interest changes running 2 to 3 times the 2026 average, creating conditions for a squeeze. However, if it breaks below 288, a stop-loss is necessary, and the downside could quickly fall to 267, a drop of about 10%, which would also confirm a head-and-shoulders top pattern.

On the semiconductor side, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index SOX is currently around 499 to 500, with support at 486. A break below 486 would significantly increase downside risk, but this level could also become a stopping point for the decline. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF SMH is priced at 545, with support at 534. The previous range of 557 to 581 has already been broken, and the overall trend is weak. We need to watch for a bottoming pattern. The software sector ETF IGV is relatively strong. The current pullback is still within a normal range, with key support at 101. A break below 101 would shift it into a sideways, choppy phase. IGV has shown a clear divergence on the daily chart, with fading upward momentum, so this pullback is a technical correction.

For individual stocks, we continue to hold both Microsoft MSFT and NVIDIA NVDA without reducing positions. For Microsoft, watch the low from August 27. For NVIDIA, we maintain a bullish view above 215. Taiwan Semiconductor TSM is currently priced at 414. We will add to the position if it breaks below this level, with a long-term bullish view above 500. Alphabet GOOGL has already broken below its 200-day moving average and is in a phase of weakness. We are holding but not adding to the position. Tesla TSLA closed at 367.9 yesterday, failing to break through 368, and showed signs of stalling today. If it can break through later, we can look at a swing trade from 315 to 465, with a stop-loss set at 315. For SRG, we are waiting for a lower level to add, not chasing the price higher. For TRV, if it pulls back to the accumulation zones of 296 to 313 or 265 to 276, we will consider buying.

Finally, a note on risks. The persistent rise in Treasury yields continues to pressure the valuations of growth stocks and small- to mid-caps. If the Russell breaks below 288, it could fall quickly to 267. If the Nasdaq breaks below 702, it will weaken significantly, and a break below 687 confirms a bearish trend. If the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index breaks below 486, downside risk will increase substantially. Volatility is expected to rise further in September and October, and the market may face deeper pullbacks. Economic data is weak, new orders have slumped sharply, and the price index remains elevated, so stagflation risk warrants vigilance.

The sleepy month of August is over, and September has begun to stir. I hope everyone can navigate the turbulent months of September and October safely, seize the opportunities, and see their accounts continue to grow steadily to new highs by year-end. That’s all for today. See you at the same time tomorrow.