Hello everyone, welcome back to the U.S. stock analysis channel. I'm lorder. It's Wednesday evening, September 2, 2026, Eastern Time. All four major indices rose today. The Russell bounced back from the brink just as it was on the verge of breaking down, up 1%. Nine of the S&P 500's eleven sectors were up today and two were down, so we didn't see a repeat of yesterday's broad selloff. In after-hours trading, Broadcom swung sharply on its earnings — down 6%, then up 2%, and now down 1% again. We're also catching up on PMW's earnings from yesterday. Over at NVIDIA, Jensen Huang made a strong pitch for AI infrastructure investment at the G20 tech summit, and it looks like it paid off. The Fed's August Beige Book also came out today, so let's summarize it across four areas: prices, consumer spending, employment, and growth.

Overall, we're cautiously bullish, with the market showing structural divergence. The four major indices rose, and the Russell bounced before breaking down. Broadcom's earnings were mixed, but key support held. PMW's earnings point to slowing growth, and after the big drop, the technicals look thin. NVIDIA got a lift from Jensen Huang's call, so we continue to hold. The market still depends on AI infrastructure spending, but we need to stay alert to the risks of elevated Treasury yields and slowing growth at the individual stock level.

First, let's look at Treasuries. The 10-year yield spiked and then pulled back today, and didn't close at the highs. Behind that, two officials did some verbal expectation management. Commerce Secretary Lutnick, when asked about elevated Treasury yields, said rates will come down and markets will stabilize, adding that he's not worried. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the goal of the buyback operation is to avoid adverse market outcomes, and that buybacks can free up balance-sheet capacity so banks can participate more in Treasury auctions. Under that verbal expectation management, the 10-year yield spiked and faded, and after the open it still looks like it's drifting modestly lower. That's good news for the Nasdaq, the SOX, and the Russell, which have been hovering near key levels. As long as Treasury yields can pull back meaningfully, that's solid support for stock prices.

There was also an economic data point today: August ADP private payrolls came in at 38,000 new jobs, the lowest since January. A cooling labor market could weigh on consumer spending and, indirectly, on corporate earnings expectations.

The indices have stabilized, so let's turn to individual stocks.

Broadcom's stock was volatile after earnings, but key support held. Our current view is neutral-to-bullish. Earnings beat expectations, but margins declined, and the forward guidance was mixed. The key range is 325 to 365, with a stop at 324. As long as 324 holds, the stock can still push higher on the high-growth thesis. That said, Broadcom's forward valuation is built on high-growth assumptions — fiscal 2027 EPS midpoint of 668 — so the margin decline bears watching. A break below 324 would mean the market is no longer granting a high-growth premium, which could trigger a valuation reset.

We didn't cover PMW's earnings yesterday, so let's catch up today. The stock fell 9% and closed near its recent low, back in the 317 to 342 range. Growth slows sharply in the new fiscal year, and a P/E above 40x looks clearly overvalued — the fundamentals can't support the current price. Technical support is thin. 317 is the first support level; below that, the 300 area is the neckline of the two-month top formation. A break below 317 would confirm a topping pattern in the rally that started in June, putting the 300 area in view. On the trading side, use 317 as the stop reference; if it breaks, take profits or step aside.

On NVIDIA, Jensen Huang announced nearly a trillion dollars in AI infrastructure investment. Today's volume was the heaviest since early July, aside from the August 27 earnings day, which confirms that his call gave the stock a real boost. Our view hasn't changed — we're holding steady. It's our second-largest position at 10% of the portfolio, and we still see upside. The downside is that it doesn't have as much volatility — the market cap is just too big — but the stock is also relatively steadier for that reason.

Finally, let's run through the risk points. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked and pulled back, but if it heads higher again, the Nasdaq, the SOX, and the Russell — names sitting at key levels — will come under pressure. Broadcom's margins have been sliding; if growth comes in below expectations, the stock could break 324 and trigger a valuation reset. PMW's growth has slowed sharply; with rich fundamentals and thin technical support, a break below 317 could accelerate the move down toward 300. AI infrastructure investment is hard to reverse at this point — if future capex comes in below expectations, the entire semiconductor and data-center supply chain will take a hit. ADP private payrolls added only 38,000 jobs, the lowest since January; a cooling labor market could weigh on consumer spending and indirectly affect corporate earnings expectations.

That's all for today. The main thing to watch remains Treasury yields and a few key price levels. See you next time.