Hello everyone, welcome back to the U.S. stock analysis channel. I’m lorder. Today, after hawkish Fed Governor Waller delivered dovish remarks, Treasury yields weakened and the four major indices posted broad gains. Except for the Russell, the other three indices all rose more than one percent. In the S&P 500, 341 stocks advanced and 160 declined — a very solid overall performance. The tech sector, in particular, was led higher by the four big tech names and posted a strong gain on the day. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, however, still looks like it can’t get off the mat: its components were split between gainers and decliners, and the index inched up just 0.1 percent, almost as a token move. This situation closely resembles the earlier weakness we saw in the software space. It really seems like the market’s rotation keeps shifting.

Our stance today is structurally bullish. Fed Governor Waller’s surprise dovish pivot sparked a broad market rally, with tech stocks leading the way. Most leading companies have strong fundamentals, and pullbacks should be viewed as long-term opportunities. However, we need to pay special attention to the daily bearish divergence on TSLA, as well as the traditional volatility risks in September and October.

Let’s start with today’s economic data and Waller’s pivot. This Fed governor, who had been relatively hawkish before, suddenly leaned dovish, and he was very clear: he favors holding rates steady in September rather than hiking. Waller said that if the August inflation data shows persistent strength, that would support keeping rates unchanged, but if inflation comes in too hot, only then would he consider a hike. While he sees some upside risk to inflation, he stated that wage growth is consistent with inflation returning to two percent. Waller also said there is almost no cost to waiting one more meeting. He suggested the magnitude of any inflation acceleration is not large and does not support tightening monetary policy. This stance is essentially a 180-degree turn — meaning, you can run a little hot, but don’t run too hot, and I won’t hike. In short, the market’s sentiment was clearly lifted by this pivot.

Next, let’s go through each of the stocks mentioned in the title.

First, TSLA. It broke out today, and the consolidation range has shifted higher. Previously, the range we were watching was 315 to 465, with a finer subdivision of 331 to 368. After breaking above 368, the next level to watch is resistance at 465. However, TSLA has a daily bearish divergence, and the high from August 21 has not yet been repaired. This technical pattern needs to be resolved either through a high-volume rally or a pullback — that’s the risk to keep in mind if you’re holding it.

Next, MSFT. Starting next quarter, it will change the structure of its financial reporting disclosures, and the market is reacting positively. MSFT is confident in AI monetization, and our long-term target is above 600. In the short term, it needs to firmly establish itself above 514. Note: when we say a valid breakout, we mean a close or an open above 514 — an intraday touch doesn’t count. Support sits at 496.

Let’s also check in on the other names among the four big tech stocks. Otherwise, AMZN and GOOGL get criticized too much, so let’s say a couple of good words for them too. AMZN is currently trading around 258, with support at 256 and overhead resistance at 287. We view this as a long-term opportunity; the valuation is already approaching the lower end of the 2027 range. GOOGL is now in the long-term zone between 329 and 346, and it requires patience. It has fallen below its 200-day moving average and needs time to repair. Overhead resistance levels are at 355, 371, and the 379 to 390 area.

NVDA’s technical picture is intact across all timeframes — continue to hold.

META still needs time to build a base. It needs to break above 632 first to confirm a halt to the decline, and then establish itself above 680 to open up upside potential.

Finally, AMD. It is now tracing a pattern similar to the old NVDA, needing to break through a key descending trendline. That zone is between 467 and 498. Once a valid breakout occurs, momentum will gradually build, and it can then attempt a move toward 506 to 528. Until that breakout happens, we remain on the sidelines, with support at 427.

Looking at overall volume, NVDA saw elevated volume, META saw elevated volume, MSFT saw slightly elevated volume, AMZN saw slightly elevated volume, and GOOGL’s volume was flat. The VIX moved down another five points today, and downside protection did not increase, suggesting that market sentiment is currently leaning optimistic.

Amid the optimism, there are several risks to keep on your radar. TSLA’s daily bearish divergence has not been repaired; if it cannot continue to rally on strong volume, it may face a pullback. September and October are traditionally volatile months, and the broader market could see a 5 to 7 percent correction. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls data, as well as next week’s CPI and PPI reports, could all influence the Fed’s rate expectations. Additionally, services inflation is not slowing — the ISM prices index is rising — so the risk of rate hikes still exists. Tech stock valuations are currently elevated; if they run up too far, consider trimming positions appropriately. Markets often grind higher slowly and sell off sharply, so you need to guard against rapid pullbacks. Finally, the risk of slowing capital expenditure among the four big tech names still needs further confirmation when third-quarter earnings reports arrive.

Market volatility works both ways — up moves and down moves are both just volatility. Don’t get too caught up in one or two days of price action. Arrange your individual stock positions properly and take it step by step. That’s all for today. We’ll see you same time tomorrow — don’t miss it.