Hello everyone, welcome back to the U.S. stock market analysis channel. I'm lorder. It's Thursday evening, September 10, 2026, Eastern Time. All four major indices closed lower today, with the Nasdaq and Russell leading the decline. The S&P broke below 7,620, triggering the first CTA sell line. It managed to bounce back toward 7,620 during the session, but unfortunately kept grinding lower under pressure. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index came up just short at the finish line—it got pushed back at the last step. And in the software sector, which has been weak for several sessions, IGV broke below 101 today. Across the S&P's eleven sectors, only consumer staples and communications edged higher; the other nine sectors finished lower. The VIX woke from its slumber and jumped straight to near 18 in one move. Today's tape summed up: the stocks that were strong no longer look strong, and the weak just keep getting weaker.

Today's stance is to stand aside. All four U.S. indices fell, and the S&P breaking below 7,620 triggered the first layer of programmatic selling pressure, driven mainly by surging Treasury yields and a sharp jump in crude oil. After the close, Oracle's earnings lacked any real surprise, while Adobe's report came up short on details and left its conviction in question. Market focus now shifts to tomorrow's CPI report and what it means for rate-hike expectations.

The core drags today came from two directions. On Treasury yields, the 10-year jumped 2.48% today, hitting 4.96% in a single session—just a step away from the psychological 5% line. The 30-year was even more striking, climbing to 5.37%, a nearly twenty-year high not seen since 2007. Tensions in the Middle East remain elevated. International crude surged 6% today, with media reports that Houthi forces have taken control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Brent crude broke through the $100 mark on that news. Today's macro data could only be described as a mess. The silver lining: Oracle's and Adobe's post-market reports didn't stir up much trouble, so there was no extra kick to the market after the close.

In the software sector, IGV opened at 100.8 and closed at 101. With a gap-down open, the breakdown is confirmed because the opening price came in below the support level. 101 has now flipped from support into resistance, with the next resistance overhead at 107. Same level, different meaning: before the break, it was a buy point; after the break, a rally back to that level becomes resistance. So IGV should be treated as a bounce candidate now, not a buy.

Oracle is up 4% after hours, but it fell as much as 5% during the regular session. The report met expectations but lacked any surprise—AI monetization is on track but nothing special. Watch support in the 147 to 159 range, with resistance at 175 to 183.

Adobe is down slightly after hours, 1% to 2%. The report looks superficial and light on detail, so the question is whether this is a value trap. Support sits at 235 to 248; if 235 breaks, the next level to watch is 182.

AMD fell more than 3% today, but on shrinking volume—and lighter volume on a down day suggests limited selling pressure. It spiked higher, then faded, but the stabilization held. If it breaks 467 on rising volume, the breakout momentum window closes. It met resistance at 498 and pulled back. Hold off and watch for now.

Nvidia is approaching the lower edge of 217. The 217 to 228 zone is minor support—essentially optional. The 205 to 215 area is the real watch zone for aggressive long-term positioning. The long-term view is unchanged.

The S&P breaking below 7,620 triggered the first layer of programmatic selling. There was a bounce intraday, but it continued lower under pressure, so we'll keep watching for the next defense line. 7,000 is within a normal pullback range. Right now, only the first line has been breached, with no panic—a 5% to 10% drawdown is well within reason. IGV gapped down to open at 100.8, and since the open was below support, the breakdown is confirmed. Support-resistance flip principle: the same level was a buy point before the break; after the break, a rally to that level becomes resistance. AMD fell more than 3% but on relatively light volume, indicating limited selling pressure; if it breaks 467 on rising volume, the breakout momentum window closes. The support grading system classifies support into minor, medium, and strong tiers. For Nvidia, 217 to 228 is minor support; 205 to 215 is the key observation zone.

The risk points are concentrated in a few areas. Surging Treasury yields are weighing on growth stock valuations. The sharp rise in crude is intensifying inflation concerns. The PPI report ran hot, with energy prices contributing most of the gain—core PPI came in below expectations on a month-over-month basis, but year-over-year it's still accelerating. Rate-hike expectations are heating up, and if tomorrow's CPI comes in hotter than expected, selling pressure could intensify. September's seasonal weakness: historically poor returns, a market that lacks follow-through, and short-term trading is tough. The software sector is weakening—after IGV's breakdown, the trend has turned, so watch for the risk of other software names falling in sympathy. There's nothing else actionable here, so we keep waiting and see what this bumpy September month throws at us.

That's it for today's show. CPI data is on deck tomorrow—see you after the close.

*The above does not constitute investment advice. Markets carry risk; invest with caution.*