Hi everyone, welcome back to the U.S. stock analysis channel, I'm lorder. Let's get right to today's market action. After Fed Chair Warsh's press conference, the four major indices sold off sharply, and despite some late-session recovery, only the Nasdaq closed flat among the four; the other three finished lower, with the Dow down the most today. By sector, energy, financials, and materials lagged, while tech and healthcare did relatively better—but even those only closed marginally higher.

In today's episode, I'll first walk you through what happened at the FOMC meeting and the follow-on effects, then discuss a few cybersecurity stocks. Why those? Because the AI threat narrative has been driving a lot of buzz lately. Cybersecurity stocks surged over the past stretch, pulled back in the middle, and then got bought right back up. I also want to flag: there's a lot of options activity fueling this speculation. If you're watching or participating, I'll update some key levels so you can protect your profits.

Today's stance is cautious and on the sidelines. The Fed hiked 25 basis points as expected, but the dot plot shows deeply fractured internal expectations for 2027, which for now has capped the surge in the 10-year Treasury yield and gives growth stocks short-term support. Cybersecurity stocks are running on the AI threat narrative, but forward valuations are already heavily stretched, and options plus retail participation are extremely high—watch for price-volume divergence and topping risk.

First, the FOMC meeting. The Fed hiked 25 basis points as expected, taking the fed funds target range to 3.75 to 4. The decision was unanimous—no dissents. The statement itself changed only slightly. The Fed said the hike will help inflation return to target faster and reiterated its commitment to price stability. It kept the line that inflation remains elevated, but dropped the earlier language attributing part of inflation to supply shocks—a sign inflation has become more entrenched. On activity, the Fed repeated that the economy is expanding at a solid pace, adding that despite some uncertainty from geopolitical developments, domestic spending remains resilient. It also noted strong productivity growth and described capital investment as solid rather than the prior "strong."

On today's tape, the S&P 500 found support at the 100-day moving average and bounced—that level is a quant trigger point and a key reference for near-term strength. If today's low is broken, we could see further weakness; if today's high is taken out, that signals strength.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is inside a triangle pattern: it opened higher, faded, then bounced late. The closer a triangle gets to the apex, the less reliable a breakout; breakouts from the broader middle zone are more valid. A clean break needs a big gap-up to confirm—a slow drift sideways through the pattern doesn't count.

Now the cybersecurity names. The S&P 500 held the 100-day moving average and bounced—that's the key near-term defense level. Breaking today's low means continued weakness; taking out today's high means strength.

PANW (Palo Alto Networks) — Price is right at prior highs, with virtually no support below and no resistance above—it's at all-time highs. Forward valuation is extremely rich: the July 2028 forward ceiling is $197, which requires roughly 35–40% earnings growth to justify. Sell-side analysts have only ticked estimates up modestly; there's no major fundamental change supporting the current price. If you're in it, watch for level breaks and protect profits.

CRWD (CrowdStrike) — Price is near new highs, with support around 223 to 229, stronger support below 197, and a relatively thin zone from 205 to 216 in between. No resistance above—it's right at new highs. This name has the heaviest retail participation. Volume has been shrinking for three straight sessions but still sits above average. On January 2027 forward estimates of 37 to 64 times, you'd need earnings growth of 50–80% to justify the current price—beware of price-volume divergence.

FTNT (Fortinet) — Current price is roughly double the original build-level of $60 to $70. Support sits at 160 to 165, with very little resistance overhead. If 142 breaks, it could drop sharply—on the order of 30%. The fundamentals are stretched, though not as extreme as the other two. Volume is shrinking but still above average—watch for topping patterns and protect profits.

On volume: all three cybersecurity stocks have rallied on expanding volume. After Monday's volume spike, they've seen three days of shrinking volume, but volume is still above average—the heat hasn't faded. If we get an up-move on shrinking volume, price-volume divergence and top divergence are highly likely, so protect your profits.

On forward valuation: using 15% and 26% five-year compound growth rates as a baseline, current prices are far above the valuation ceiling. Unless earnings growth gets revised sharply higher to 35–80%, the valuations are severely overstretched.

I have to stress a few risk points here.

The Fed's dot plot is extremely split—4 members disagreed with the 2027 hold-rate view, including 1 member who expects 4 rate cuts. The policy path is highly uncertain.

The Treasury yield risk is delayed, not gone. If Brent crude pushes from above $100 to $110–120, inflation expectations will override rate-hike expectations and yields could spike again.

Cybersecurity valuations are badly stretched. Sell-side analysts haven't made major upward revisions, and if buy-side internal models don't deliver, there's no fundamental support under these prices.

These stocks have almost no support underneath—if a key level fails, they can fall fast. Beware of chasing here.

Geopolitical developments and strong capex are pushing Treasury yields higher, which keeps pressure on growth-stock valuations.

That's all for today given the time. Overall, the market reacted sharply to the Fed decision, and the split in the dot plot leaves the policy path full of uncertainty. The cybersecurity trade is still hot, but valuations are already overstretched—if you're involved, keep an eye on those key levels and protect your profits. See you next time.