Hello everyone, welcome back to the US stock analysis channel, I'm lorder. Today the four major indices opened lower and closed near flat, but the internals were actually fairly weak. Among S&P 500 components, 326 stocks fell while 176 rose. Out of 11 sectors, only healthcare, energy, and communications were up — the other eight sectors were down. Plainly put, if Meta hadn't carried the tape today, the market would have looked a lot worse.

Our overall stance remains on the sidelines. The market is in a state of structural divergence and rotation among tech names. Surging Treasury yields are pressuring equities, with the 10-year yield at 5.19%. On the other side, Meta rallied hard on strong volume and completed a repair of its bearish divergence, but it has now entered overbought territory. Google and Amazon are still in long-term accumulation zones. Oracle faces force majeure risk on its data center projects, and Costco's stock has barely moved after earnings.

Treasury yields rose another 1.76% today, reaching 5.19%, which is meaningful pressure on the market. Some might wonder — if yields are climbing, shouldn't stocks be under pressure? Why do the indices look okay? First, stocks actually are under pressure. Over these past two days of surging yields, declining stocks and sectors have been in the majority. The indices haven't fallen much because heavyweight names are propping them up. Second, the key question is how long yields can stay at these elevated levels — and right now, how long they hold up is the real test for equities.

On the macro front, Fed's Williams said another rate hike before year-end is reasonable. Paulson also mentioned that another hike may be needed to contain inflation, and Hammack reiterated concerns about inflation. The market is currently pricing roughly a 67% probability of a rate hike in October.

Meta is less than $20 away from its prior high. Today it surged on heavy volume, resolving the daily bearish divergence through the most aggressive path possible. But RSI has entered overbought territory — pushing higher will only deepen that overbought condition, so a pullback can be expected. Up ahead lies the moderate resistance zone from 745 to 785. The resistance isn't particularly heavy, but watch for stalling price action. Our view: bullish but short-term overbought, so consider scaling out profits in tranches.

Oracle ORCL fell more than 3% today, with even deeper losses during the session. Its data center projects have been delayed by force majeure, and both revenue expectations and debt-repayment risk are escalating. Credit default swaps also hit a new high. Current stance: cautiously avoid — this risk point won't be easy to digest in the near term.

Google GOOG remains in its long-term accumulation zone between 298 and 346. Fundamentals look fine. View: neutral-to-bullish on the sidelines, waiting for a launch signal.

Amazon AMZN held its trendline, though the trendline drawing is a bit off. A cleaner reference is 244.3 — the September 16 low. Breaking below 244.3 would mean the upside window has closed and momentum is fading, but it wouldn't necessarily signal a bearish turn. The current support zone is 244 to 256, with 244.3 as the key level. Stance: primarily on the sidelines.

Costco COST traded nearly flat after earnings. It's sitting in a high-valuation zone, cash flow growth has declined for three consecutive quarters, and the impact of inflation across consumer segments is becoming visible. 867 is the line in the sand. Above it, the key zone is 867 to 902. A break below targets 750; if it holds, that marks a potential intermediate bottom.

Here are the risks worth watching: First, Treasury yields staying elevated — whether the 10-year holds at 5.19% is a persistent drag on equities. Second, multiple Fed officials have hinted at another possible rate hike before year-end, with roughly a 67% probability priced for October. Third, Oracle's data center projects are delayed by force majeure, raising both revenue expectations and debt-repayment risk, and CDS has hit new highs. Fourth, inflation is still weighing on consumer segments — Costco's membership revenue growth has now declined for three straight quarters.

That wraps up a rundown of the key stocks today. The indices haven't moved from their current levels yet, but if bigger moves or risk signals show up, I'll update everyone. See you next time.