Hello everyone, welcome back to the U.S. stock analysis channel, I'm lorder. It's Friday evening, September 25, 2026, Eastern Time. All four major indices closed higher, with the Dow leading the way. Microsoft, a Dow component, performed well, surging on heavy volume and breaking through its resistance zone, heading toward 600 — we'll get into the details shortly. S&P 500 components were broadly higher today as well, with 329 advancers and 172 decliners. Most of the eleven sectors closed up, led by technology, industrials, staples, and financials. In bonds, there was notable intraday volatility, with the 10-year Treasury yield pulling back slightly. As we discussed yesterday, this is a trend to watch. A lot of people feel that even with yields rising, the market isn't really buying into the move and isn't showing much panic. The PMI data from the day before and yesterday's 7-year Treasury auction were both pretty weak, which could affect the short-term path, so we should keep tracking this for a few more days to see whether yields can hold at elevated levels or quickly fall back below 5%. If they stay above 5.2% for an extended period, the market will start to feel the pain. On crude, U.S.-Iran talks released some optimism, and Brent pulled back below 100. Today we'll first take a quick look at a few economic data points, then go straight into individual stocks, including Microsoft, Meta, and TSMC, along with the current state of QQQ, SPY, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, SOXX, and its breakout.

Overall stance is bullish. The market is in an uptrend. Microsoft's breakout on heavy volume opens up new upside, TSMC is hitting new highs without resistance, and Meta is overbought in the short term and needs to consolidate, but its medium-term trend remains strong. Rising AI capex expectations are a tailwind for the semiconductor supply chain, but we need to watch whether Treasury yields stay elevated and how the technical bearish divergence resolves.

Today's economic data is somewhat relevant to semiconductors and computer equipment, so let's walk through it. Most of the eleven S&P sectors closed higher, led by technology, industrials, staples, and financials. The market is in a broad advance. QQQ is at new highs with open air above — hold what you have. SPY faces minor resistance near its prior high, but support underneath is solid. The main risk comes from unexpected headlines.

Microsoft broke through the 514 resistance level on heavy volume today, confirming the breakout's validity. The uptrend is clear, with a target of 600 and above. After the breakout, new support sits at 490. That said, the weekly MACD bearish divergence hasn't fully resolved yet. We expect it to work itself out through price appreciation, but there is a risk of a technical pullback.

Meta was severely overbought after yesterday's big rally and stalled today as it begins to consolidate. A pullback into the 690 to 730 zone is worth watching — that's the trading range of the big-volume bullish candle from September 21. Selling pressure after an overbought condition can exceed expectations, so keep that in mind.

TSMC broke through 429 and is making new highs with no overhead resistance. Bullish.

SOXX is still just shy of a full breakout. Once 577 is cleared, we look for new highs. The structure shows higher lows and higher highs, suggesting a stair-step advance toward the prior high. But there's a daily bearish divergence, so even after a breakout, a pullback to repair that is likely.

If Treasury yields stay above 5.2% for an extended period, the market will feel the pain. Microsoft's weekly bearish divergence hasn't resolved, leaving room for a technical pullback. Meta's selling pressure after being overbought could exceed expectations. Unexpected headlines — such as AI regulation or talk of slowing capex — could trigger market volatility. Chasing at highs makes the risk-reward hard to calculate, and leveraged additions are not recommended.

That's it for today's show. It's the holiday season — I hope everyone gets some good rest. Your health matters too. Stay happy and stay healthy while you're making money. See you next week, same time. Take care.