Hello everyone, welcome back to the U.S. stock analysis channel. I'm lorder.

Bullish on the semiconductor sector, bearish on Nike. The market opened October with modest gains, led by tech stocks, with market breadth improving somewhat. Semiconductor ETF SMH has broken through a key resistance level—while there's a bearish divergence flaw on the technicals, the overall trend is upward. Nike is plunging on earnings and forward guidance that came in well below expectations, and the validity of its technical support is in question.

October trading is underway, with the broader market closing modestly higher and tech stocks leading the way. Breadth has improved compared to the past few days. On the macro front, the nonfarm payrolls report is due tomorrow and could trigger market volatility. October is historically a high-volatility month, and with the midterm election year in play, uncertainty is elevated.

Let's start with today's market focus: Nike NKE. The stock is down more than 8% after hours. Earnings showed revenue missing expectations, and full-year EPS guidance came in at $1.15 to $1.35, well below the $1.67 analysts expected. The deterioration is happening faster than anticipated, with a recovery now pushed out to fiscal 2028. Its historical support sits in the $31.20 to $34.90 range, but given how far back that level dates, the chip structure has likely shifted, making that technical support less reliable. There's meaningful downside risk from here.

Next, the semiconductor sector. Semiconductor ETF SMH closed at $617, successfully breaking through the strong resistance zone of $600 to $610, forming a bullish structure of higher lows and higher highs, with volume expanding on the move up. Key support sits in the $591 to $613 range. That said, there's a daily-level bearish divergence on the technicals—price is making new highs while RSI is not—signaling waning upside momentum that needs to be resolved.

There are two main paths for that resolution. The first is the strong path: price keeps climbing, working off the divergence through consolidation or a slow grind higher. The second is the pullback path: price first pulls back to key support, finds its footing, and then resumes the uptrend. The pullback shouldn't be too deep, or it could damage the bullish structure.

The other semiconductor ETF, the PHLX Semiconductor ETF SOXX, closed at $576.30, just below the key resistance level of $577. If it can close above $577 from here, that would count as a breakout. The view is similar to SMH—there's also a bearish divergence that needs to be worked off. Within the sector, Nvidia NVDA and AMD are showing relative strength, and TSMC TSM is also grinding higher, working its way back toward prior highs.

Beyond the macro risks from the nonfarm payrolls data and October's historically high volatility, there are specific risks at the individual stock and sector level. Nike NKE's fundamentals are deteriorating sharply, and the validity of its technical support is questionable. The semiconductor sector is showing bearish divergence on the technicals, creating near-term risk of a corrective pullback—the advance is likely to be gradual rather than a straight-line move.

Separately, regarding AI company Anthropic's IPO: media reports currently peg its valuation at nearly $2 trillion, with a possible listing as early as late November. These details are based on early-stage filings and are not final—there are significant variables at play, and this could have a meaningful impact on the market.

That's all for today's episode. Wishing everyone the best in capturing opportunities amid the volatility, and may your accounts grow steadily. See you next time.