Hey everyone, welcome back to the U.S. stock market analysis channel, I'm lorder. It's Wednesday evening, November 7, 2026, Eastern Time. Today all four major indices pulled back, with the Russell posting the biggest decline. S&P 500 components were mostly down, with 361 stocks falling and 138 rising. Sector-wise, it was rough—only healthcare managed a gain, while ten sectors declined. Industrials took a particularly hard hit, down 2.1%, and industrial bellwether CAT fell more than 5%, making it the biggest decliner in the Dow today. After several straight days of gains, does today's pullback signal renewed risk? At least as of today, the answer is no.

Overall, stay on the sidelines. We're not bearish on short-term market adjustments, but we remain cautious on certain high-valuation stocks. Today's pullback came on lighter volume, which is a normal technical correction—no need for excessive worry. The fourth quarter is traditionally a seasonally strong period, and historical data shows higher odds of gains in midterm election years. On individual names, keep an eye on SpaceX's debt risk, Apple's valuation pressure, and key technical levels for Meta and CAT.

Today, aside from the Russell, the three major indices saw even lighter volume than yesterday. Typically, a small decline on shrinking volume isn't worth worrying about—personally, when I see moves like this, I usually just treat it as noise.

Let's start with the Fed meeting minutes. The minutes showed that all members, including non-voting participants, supported the 25-basis-point rate hike in September, and most members felt another hike before year-end could be appropriate. Participants broadly emphasized that inflation remains elevated and that the labor market appears to be near full employment. Inflation risks are tilted to the upside, and some noted that this upside tilt has become more pronounced in recent months. A few participants also suggested that AI-related buildout could cause aggregate demand to outpace supply in the medium term, adding upward pressure on inflation. On Treasury yields, many participants pointed out that while long-term yields have spiked recently, the main driver has been changes in real rates.

Turning to the New York Fed's report, consumers' median inflation expectations for both the one-year and three-year horizons ticked up modestly, with the one-year reading at its highest level since May 2023.

On fourth-quarter seasonality, Deutsche Bank looked at the past 22 midterm election years and found that the S&P rose in the fourth quarter 21 times, with only two declines. This aligns with the traditional strong fourth-quarter season—there's the Santa Claus rally, and many American families and middle-class households have extra cash around the holidays and like to buy stocks as gifts, even if it's just a few shares. It's a tradition. The average gain is roughly 7%, though that number has been skewed higher in recent years, so you can't just take a simple average. But at minimum, seasonality looks decent. The fourth quarter of midterm years can bring some volatility, but that doesn't mean it has to go down.

SpaceX

SpaceX has issued debt again—and again. The company keeps raising money through bond issuance, bond prices are falling, and there's credit risk. The stock is in a dense trading zone, but technical analysis is limited given how recently it listed, and overhead selling pressure is unclear because there's been little trading history and few tests. Right now we're seeing a stalling pattern, so the stance is wait-and-see. First support zone is 140 to 155, second zone is 100 to 120.

Apple (AAPL)

Apple is expanding its smart home footprint, but the new business won't meaningfully boost earnings in the near term. Valuation is currently on the higher side, with the stock around 330, near the upper end of forward valuation—so the stance is cautious or slightly bearish. Medium support is at 326 to 339, with key support at 305 to 317. If it breaks below 326, it could drift into the 305 to 317 range; below 305, the bearish case opens up toward 281 and lower.

Meta (META)

Meta has pulled back into the key support zone of 690 to 730, and since that level hasn't broken, this is a normal pullback. If we see signs of stabilization in this area, it's a technical buying opportunity. Stronger support sits at 656 to 680. A break below 690 would put it in a 656 to 730 range, and only a break below 656 would turn the bias bearish. Above 730, we'd look for new trend highs. Overall, the bias is bullish—we're looking for entry points.

Caterpillar (CAT)

What's going on with CAT today? The stock is at elevated levels, around 810, near the upper end of forward valuation at 814, and it got hit hard by weakness in industrials and news of an antitrust investigation. Key support is at 798. A break below that would trigger mean reversion, with downside toward the 720 area and even the 600 range beyond that. The stance is cautiously bearish.

On the macro side, the Fed minutes showed most members supporting further rate hikes, with inflation risks still tilted to the upside. On credit, SpaceX is raising large amounts of debt through bond issuance, bond prices have already fallen sharply, and credit default swap spreads have surged—reflecting market concerns about its ability to service debt. On valuation, stocks like Apple and Caterpillar are trading at or near the upper end of forward valuation, leaving room for pullback pressure. On industry cycles, earnings expectations for industrial segments like electrical equipment may be peaking, with flat or declining conditions possible ahead. On technicals, newly listed stocks like SpaceX have limited trading history, so there's insufficient price testing and technical analysis is less reliable.

Alright, that wraps up today's scattered market news and stock commentary. The market just stretched its legs—no need to get too worked up. See you tomorrow at the same time.